Germany and France are jointly developing a new combat aircraft: FCAS is the most expensive European armaments project to date. Now Spain is also getting involved. That also entails risks.
The equipment of the Bundeswehr is bad. This has not only been known since the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. Material is missing at all corners and ends or it does not work. Combat aircraft are also showing their age: the Bundeswehr’s Tornados have been flying since the early 1980s, and the Eurofighter since the mid-1990s. If they fly.
In 2017, Germany and France decided to jointly develop a new fighter jet. Because the Rafale machines of the French Air Force are also no longer technically up to date. FCAS was born, the “Future Combat Air System” (“future air combat system”). Europe no longer wanted to stand by and watch the US lead the way in building military aircraft. The F35 from the US manufacturer Lockheed is currently considered the most modern fighter jet in the world.
“No European country can do it alone”
It soon became clear: Spain should also become a partner of FCAS. “Because no European country – not Germany, not France – is able to handle a project like FCAS alone. Both financially and industrially,” explains military expert Ulrike Franke from the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations. In addition, if European partners build an aircraft together, they can cooperate better on joint missions.
An estimated 100 billion euros will flow into the development of FCAS. This makes it the most expensive European armaments project to date. The new fighter jet alone is not enough: FCAS is supposed to be a weapon system that also includes drones, artificial intelligence and satellite technology. It’s about networked warfare: a fighter jet is in direct contact with a swarm of drones and perhaps also with warships at sea.
Spain is now officially on board today: the accession ceremony is taking place in Madrid, and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is also expected to attend.
“Three players are better than just two”
From Ulrike Franke’s point of view, the fact that Spain is becoming an FCAS partner brings advantages above all: if more companies are involved, there is also more know-how involved. Should Germany and France disagree on the political level on development issues, Spain could intervene and mediate as a kind of arbitrator.
However, she points out: “The more actors are involved – whether on the industrial or the political level – the more complex the whole thing becomes.” But FCAS is already complex: countless companies and startups are involved in the project. Not to mention political power games.
The balance of power is likely to become even more complicated with Spain’s entry. In which direction they are shifting – expert Franke dares not make any predictions. In any case, the French government has made it clear several times that it has the leading role in FCAS and intends to keep it.
In January, Chancellor Scholz and French President Macron recalled the long military cooperation between the two countries. Now the three of them should continue with FCAS.
Too big to fail
Even if Spain is now an official partner: FCAS is considered a showcase project for Franco-German cooperation. Failure would be fatal for political reasons. But the construct is shaky. That became clear last year: the large companies involved, Airbus and Dassault, waged a month-long guerrilla war. Among other things, it was about the organization of the project.
In December 2022, the groups were finally able to come to an agreement and it was clear that the development of FCAS would continue. And fresh money flows from Paris and Berlin. “Politically, industrially and not least militarily, a lot depends on the FCAS project,” says Franke. “And that’s why I now have the impression that it’s too big to fail.” So too big to fail.
Manned or unmanned?
What the new fighter jet will look like is not yet known. It has long been discussed whether it should be a manned or an unmanned aircraft. It was not only a question of technical issues, but also of political and ethical ones: Where does an automated attack begin, at what point do soldiers decide on the use of weapons?
According to the current status, the FCAS aircraft should be manned, and a pilot makes decisions in the cockpit. A demo aircraft could be ready in 2029 and take off on a maiden flight. It should be at least another ten years before FCAS is ready for the market.