The fact that Spain is taking over the EU Council Presidency today follows a fixed pattern. But already in the first month there is a parliamentary election that Prime Minister Sánchez could lose.
Diversion? What distraction? If you ask Spanish government circles, there is demonstrative calm: Of course, there is a lot going on, but they are working on the plans for the EU Council Presidency with “absolute normality”.
Democracy is never a problem, the head of government himself recently declared. It is also not the first time that elections have been held during an EU Council Presidency, said Social Democratic Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez when he presented the Spanish priorities in mid-June.
In the first half of 2022, elections were held during the Council Presidency in France and President Emmanuel Macron was confirmed in office.
Who will the speech of Council Presidents hold?
But the early Spanish parliamentary elections are already having an effect. Unlike Macron at the time, Sánchez has postponed his big appearance in the EU Parliament from July to September – the traditional speech by the new Council President will therefore be held more than two months after the start of the presidency.
And it is uncertain whether the incumbent EU Council President will still be called Sánchez – because a change of government after the July 23 election cannot be ruled out.
coalition partner sought
The conservative People’s Party (PP) could currently attract around one in three voters. This is according to data released by Spanish public television last week. Accordingly, the Partido Popular would have 139 seats, more than the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the new progressive rally movement “Sumar” put together.
More, but not enough to be able to govern alone, as PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo actually has in mind. For an absolute majority, the conservatives would need the far-right of Vox, which polls have long consistently seen as the third-strongest political force in the country, behind the conservatives and the socialists. Vox appears accordingly self-confident.
The town halls are already cooperating
The fact that the PP has little or no reservations about Vox is currently evident in a whole series of town halls or in the once left-wing stronghold of Valencia. There, the new regional government will form an alliance of PP and Vox in the future.
In other regions, too, there are signs of cooperation or at least toleration of a conservative-led minority government by Vox. Pablo Simón, political scientist and professor at the Carlos III University in Madrid, does not consider an alliance between PP and Vox to be out of the question, even at the national level.
For PP leader Núñez Feijóo, who appeared in Brussels on Thursday to be trying to downplay the extent of the regional alliances between the PP and Vox in front of his party friends from the European People’s Party, this is a balancing act.
mobilization effect for the PSOE?
The incumbent Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez and his Socialists, on the other hand, never miss an opportunity to shine the spotlight on precisely these alliances. Like the conservatives, the socialists have declared the July 23 election to be a kind of fateful election.
“For a Spain of the right or the extreme right,” has been the message on all PSOE channels since the end of May. The aim is to mobilize those parts of their own supporters who stayed at home in the most recent local and regional elections, also with a view to socio-political reform projects implemented by the minority government of socialists and the left-wing alliance “Unidas Podemos”.
Vox doesn’t want any equality policy
Vox makes no secret of its stance on these issues – a large far-right poster recently caused a stir in Madrid. On it was a hand with a bracelet in the Spanish national colors around the wrist, over a rubbish bin that already contained the LGTBI flag, the feminism symbol or the “Agenda 2030” – the strategy of the incumbent government for sustainable development – are. The poster has since been taken down.
Gender equality policy is one of the most sensitive issues. Vox flatly rejects her. The conservatives have to find their pain threshold, because equality issues in Spain are supported by a broad social alliance – including people who think more conservatively.
And what about gender specific Force?
The situation is similar when it comes to gender-specific violence, i.e. when men threaten, injure or even kill their partners. The usual Vox attitude: gender-based violence does not exist.
The Conservatives recognize that violence against women exists and affirm that they want to continue to combat it as such. In the coalition agreement in the Valencia region – there are specific programs for the protection of women at risk and the prevention of gender-based violence – there is only talk of “inter-family violence” and responsibility for justice and home affairs goes to Vox.
The election campaign is getting more content
However, the alliances of the conservatives with Vox in the municipalities and regions could do the election campaign unexpectedly well. Because they are increasingly forcing the conservatives to focus less on personal attacks against Sánchez and instead to present more of their content.
Also to avoid future mishaps like this: PP leader Núñez Feijóo had announced that he would review all laws and regulations that had been passed with the approval of the Basque separatists of the Bildu electoral alliance. The left asked back whether this also applied to the recent pension increases.
The more substantive the election campaign becomes, the greater the chances for the Socialists to gain ground. The incumbent government does not have a bad record to show for itself. National and international statistics, such as labor market, inflation or economic growth figures, have been confirming this for months.