At the constituent session of Parliament, Spain’s Prime Minister Sánchez wants to explore his chances of forming a coalition government. But the first test of strength is already waiting.
One can only hope that Spain’s King Felipe VI. Likes jigsaw puzzles, because the political jigsaw puzzle he is facing in Madrid is for advanced players: Eleven parties are represented in the new Spanish parliament, including very small parties, some of which have just one MP, but which could become decisive when it comes to a governing majority . The king has to bear this in mind, because it’s up to him to give the order to form a government – and soon.
The constitutive session of the newly elected House of Representatives is therefore likely to be followed closely by both political observers and the monarch and draw his conclusions from it. Because the fundamentally usual political equation – the strongest political force is the first to try to form a government – has long since stopped working in politically fragmented Spain. So the key question is: Who is the more likely candidate to be given the mandate to form a government?
It’s the little ones that count
The problem: Neither of the two large blocs easily achieves a stable government majority of its own, neither the conservative People’s Party (PP) nor the social-democratically oriented Socialist Party (PSOE). With 137 MPs, the Conservatives are clearly the strongest force in the newly elected House of Representatives, but they do not have a majority for a right-wing government, even with the support of the far-right Vox party.
This is where the little ones come into play: PP boss Alberto Feijóo has already picked up a number of rejections from small regional parties that do not want to work with Vox. For the election as prime minister, however, he would need at least six more votes in addition to the Vox votes. It’s not that far yet, but the day should give one or two hints about realistic majorities in parliament – or let it shine through whether it could ultimately lead to a new election.
The first task of the 350 MPs is to elect the nine-member parliamentary presidency. Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez sends the freshly voted out former regional president of the Balearic Islands, Francina Armengol, into the running. To be elected in the first attempt, she would need an absolute majority of 176 votes, in the second ballot a simple majority would suffice. In turn, the little ones are decisive and Sánchez courts them accordingly offensively. Bringing together a left-wing majority in the first showdown in parliament would bring him a step closer to what he calls a “progressive majority” for the prime ministerial election.
concessions to regional parties
Sánchez’s signal to nationalist and separatist regional parties from Catalonia and the Basque Country on Wednesday that he will promote the use of the co-official languages in the EU institutions during the Spanish EU Council Presidency should also be viewed against this background. At a meeting of his party’s MPs and senators, Sánchez said official languages had already been promoted by the Cervantes Institute, but added: “We must do more, we can do more and we will do more”.
The seven MPs from the separatist Junts party from Catalonia will play a particularly decisive role – and a Catalan exile, the former regional president and Junts chairman Carles Puigdemont. He had already made it clear on the social media platform X, once known as Twitter, that he was aware of the power of his small faction and demanded demonstrable concessions before committing himself in one direction or another.
The inaugural session of the Spanish House of Representatives is likely to see King Felipe VI. so offer plenty of illustrative material for his tricky decision-making. However, he can still take his time with this: Because the deadline until a possible new election only starts when the candidate commissioned by the king stands for election in parliament for the first time. If there is still no government after two months, parliament is dissolved and new elections are held automatically.