A lightning war after thirty years of conflict. Facing the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-majority enclave on the territory of Azerbaijan, Baku won in one day of combat. Despite calls from Azeri authorities to stay, the outcome of the conflict caused the hasty departure of tens of thousands of Armenians, fearing for their lives. Blown houses, frightened faces… Before embarking on the road to exile, many of them took care to burn their personal belongings.
Scenes in which a former satellite of the USSR is the scene and which echo the distress of Ukrainians after the attack of the Russian neighbor in February 2022. Except that, according to specialists, the comparison stops there. 20 minutes asked them why Europeans are more timid about this conflict.
Between Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, geopolitical issues that cannot be “transposed”
“The situation is completely incomparable for several reasons,” says Didier Billion, deputy director of Iris*. Geopolitical issues cannot be transposed. It’s not a country the size of Russia invading a sovereign country. The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has never been recognized.”
Already mobilized by the war in Ukraine, the 27 find themselves in an uncomfortable position regarding this conflict marked by two major wars (1988-1994, 2020): on the one hand, recognizing that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azeri territory, as is Armenian Prime Minister himself recognized this last May; on the other denounce the lightning attack of the last few days. “In Ukraine, Europe played the game politically by sending weapons and money. There, she was less involved and felt a form of relief at this end of the conflict,” analyzes Taline Ter-Minassianprofessor of contemporary Russian history at Inalco and specialist in the conflict.
The EU strengthened its energy partnership with Baku
Especially since our expert recalls that Europe, after stopping its imports of Russian gas, has strengthened its energy partnership with Azerbaijan: Baku has committed in 2022 to supply 20 billion m3 of gas per year to the EU at least until 2027. A decision criticized by around fifty French elected officials from all sides who had accused the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen of “weakening” Europe. “In this delicate situation in terms of energy, the EU is not in a strong position to condemn Baku and consider sanctions,” explains Didier Billion.
Faced with divisions and antagonistic interests, Europeans seem at least to have agreed on one point: the humanitarian response. After allocating 5.5 million euros at the start of the year, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna announced additional aid of 7 million euros on Thursday. To help refugees on their way to Armenia and vulnerable people remaining in Nagorno-Karabakh, the EU has also released 5 million euros.
Faced with threats to human rights, Brussels called for a UN mission “in the coming days”. A sufficient initiative to ensure respect for international law in the area? “There is the emotion of the situation, but many Western countries risk quickly moving on to something else,” predicts Didier Billion. “In fact, the international community is showing great cynicism,” says Gaïdz Minassian, professor of international relations, interviewed by Public Senate. We are witnessing a terrible inability of the great powers to enforce international law. »
* Institute of International and Strategic Relations