Söder in front, Wüst in second place
In the K question, Merz only ends up in third place
May 7, 2024, 3:54 p.m
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Who will be the Union’s candidate for chancellor will not be decided until the fall. CDU leader Merz is currently the clear favorite. However, in a survey for the RTL/ntv trend barometer he only came in third place.
It has not yet been decided who will run for chancellor for the Union in the next federal election. At the current CDU party conference in Berlin, there has so far been no indication as to whether party leader Friedrich Merz is planning to run for office. If he wants, his candidacy for chancellor cannot be taken away from him, CDU politicians always say when they are asked about the topic.
Merz himself says there will be no power struggle between him and CSU leader Markus Söder, as there was between Söder and the then CDU leader Armin Laschet before the 2021 federal election. But everyone actually assumes that Merz will do it.
But: Would Merz also be the candidate who promises the most votes? A survey by the opinion research institute Forsa for the RTL/ntv trend barometer raises doubts about this. When asked which joint candidate for chancellor, the CDU and CSU, would receive the most votes in the next federal election, 29 percent of all eligible voters named the Bavarian Prime Minister Söder.
Merz only comes in third place on this question, because 27 percent of those eligible to vote say that the Union with North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst would have the best chances in the next federal election. 25 percent say that about Merz.
The supporters of the CDU and CSU are also most likely to believe that the Union would have the best chances in the next federal election with Söder. Even among them, Merz only comes in third place. The question will be decided after the state elections in East Germany in September. However, in the weekly K question queried by Forsa between Merz, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and either Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck or Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Merz regularly comes clearly into first place.
When asked whether Merz would lead Germany into a good future as Chancellor, 36 percent answered yes. A majority of 55 percent don’t trust Merz to do that. Here, however, he has a clear majority of Union supporters behind him: 66 percent of them say that a Chancellor Merz would lead Germany into a good future. 28 percent of CDU/CSU supporters don’t trust Merz to do that.
At the party conference in Berlin this Tuesday, the CDU is presenting a new basic program. In the debate about this, the CDU leadership always tried to find a middle ground: a little distance from the reign of Chancellor Angela Merkel, but without making a clear break with the style and direction of the former Chancellor.
The Forsa survey suggests that this approach was the right decision: for 67 percent of German citizens, the Merkel years were, all in all, good years. Only 28 percent believe that Merkel’s time as chancellor was a rather bad year for Germany. The verdict is even more positive among Union supporters.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland on May 3rd and 6th. Database: 1004 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 3 percentage points.
Further information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Deutschland.