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Study: German population will increase and age by 2040
Forecast: According to a study, the population is expected to increase minimally by 2040. The problem: The development is distributed very differently across the individual federal states. photo
© Jan Woitas/dpa
How many daycare places does a city need in 16 years? And how many nursing places? So that municipalities can plan, experts create forecasts. The result varies depending on the region.
The problem: The development is distributed very differently across the individual federal states. While Saarland and the eastern federal states have to plan for population declines, the authors predict a plus for the other states. The comparison point for the foundation with 2040 is the year 2020. According to the Federal Statistical Office, four years ago 83.15 million people lived in Germany.
Forecasts vary depending on the size of cities
According to the calculation, the population development in the 13 federal states is between plus 4.6 percent for Baden-Württemberg and minus 12.3 percent in Saxony-Anhalt. In the city states of Berlin and Hamburg there is a significant increase of 5.8 and 3.5 percent. Bremen only increased moderately by 1.1 percent.
Among the independent cities, Leipzig, Potsdam and Bamberg expect an increase of more than 10 percent. This also applies similarly to the districts of Biberach (Baden-Württemberg), Mühldorf am Inn and Kelheim (both Bavaria). Districts and independent cities in the eastern federal states are at the bottom of the list with declines of 17 percent or more.
War affects birth rates
“Three factors are crucial for forecasts: births, deaths and migration. Points 1 and 2 are developing relatively stringently, the migration is the difficult part,” says study author Petra Klug. “There have been two events in recent years that have made forecasts more difficult. That was the war in Syria in 2015 and the war in Ukraine in 2022. Both had and continue to have extreme effects on the calculations,” said the Bertelsmann Foundation expert.
And according to Klug, both events brought different influences with them. “Unlike from Syria, a high proportion of young and middle-aged women in particular have come to us from Ukraine,” says the scientist. Experts believe that the extremely high level of immigration following the war of aggression against Ukraine will not continue.
The number of employed people is decreasing
Changes in population are one thing, demographic developments are another. The baby boomers are reaching retirement age and the number of employed people is decreasing. According to calculations, the number of people over 80 will increase from around 5.8 million in 2027 to around 7.7 million in 2040. The share of this age group in the total population will then be 9.2 percent.
The so-called median age shows how big the differences are in the age structure of the population. This value divides the population into a younger half and an older half. Nationwide, the median age will rise by 1.2 years to 47.1 by 2040. The range between the federal states is almost 10 years. In Hamburg and Berlin the value is around 43 years in 16 years.
Large company departures can make the difference
In four of the five eastern countries, the median age is between 52 and 53 years. At the district level the differences are even greater. The oldest district will therefore be Greiz in Thuringia with 57.3 years, the youngest the city district of Heidelberg (Baden-Württemberg) with 38.8.
Regarding possible errors in such forecasts, Klug says: The assumptions are discussed with various experts at federal and state levels to the best of our knowledge and belief. “The smaller the territorial units, the more error-prone the forecasts are. But even small municipalities have to be able to plan and need the numbers in order to be able to assess trends,” says Klug.
In particular, large companies moving away from a city have an impact on population development – these can rarely be planned for. “All the calculations are no longer correct.” Another problem for the forecast are municipalities with initial admissions. Klug speaks of special cases that distort the statistics with their reporting data.