In power since 2015, the Portuguese Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa came clearly ahead on Sunday in the early legislative elections, marked by a breakthrough of the far right and which do not remove the specter of political instability.
Released in October by his former allies from the radical left, which caused the calling of this election, Antonio Costa risks, as in the last legislative elections of 2019, remaining below an absolute majority.
A Parliament party to stay on the left
In order to be able to govern, the 60-year-old former mayor of Lisbon will therefore have to embark on a difficult balancing act to find support in Parliament.
According to projections published at the exit of the polls by three national television stations, the Socialist Party (PS) came out on top with 37 to 42.5% of the vote and from 100 to 118 deputies out of a total of 230. It could therefore improve its 2019 score (36.3% and 108 elected).
Overall, Parliament seems set to remain on the left, with the Left Bloc totaling three to ten seats and the Communist/Green coalition between three and eight.
While he hoped to be able to create a surprise, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD, right) of Rui Rio, former mayor of Porto 64 years old, comes second with 27 to 35% of the vote, and 75 to 95 elected.
Breakthrough of the far right
With six to 14 elected and up to 8.5% of the vote, the extreme right of the anti-system party Chega (Enough), chaired by André Ventura, could be propelled to the rank of third political force in the country, while it does not had only one member in the outgoing parliament.
Portugal had long been an exception in Europe because since the end of the dictatorship in 1974 and until the last election in 2019, this country of 10 million people did not have a far-right party represented in parliament.
Having come to power seven years ago thanks to a historic alliance forged with the radical left, Antonio Costa never ceases to pride himself on having “turned the page on budgetary austerity” implemented by the right, under the supervision of the “Troika” (ECB-IMF-EU), in the midst of a debt crisis.
But, while his minority government also intended to “turn the page on the pandemic” thanks to record vaccination coverage and the European post-Covid recovery plan, he was stopped in his tracks by his former allies.
Refusing to adopt a draft budget for 2022, which they did not consider social enough, the Left Bloc and the Communists provoked the calling of this early election.
More skills and experience to govern” than Rui Rio
Despite a “certain disenchantment” with the PS, which shredded the comfortable lead it enjoyed in the polls, the majority of voters clearly judged that the outgoing Prime Minister had “more skills and ‘experience to govern’ than Rui Rio, explained political scientist Marina Costa Lobo before the vote.
Before his victory, Antonio Costa had confided that he preferred to govern alone, by negotiating the support of Parliament before each vote or by associating with a small animalist party.
He could also try to rebuild the union of the left of 2015 despite the failure of the last budget negotiations, caused according to him by the “irresponsibility” of his former allies, who demanded more efforts in favor of the power of shopping and utilities.
Finally, Antonio Costa could also turn to his rival Rui Rio and negotiate with him the abstention of the PSD during the vote on the budget in order to be able to have it adopted as soon as possible.