The people of Slovakia are electing a new parliament. Observers see a choice between the West and Moscow. Aid for Ukraine is also an issue in this election – and whether a long-term head of government will come back.
The highest inflation rate in the Eurozone at ten percent, fears for the existence of pensioners and residents of disadvantaged regions, a financially exhausted health system and the issue of migration – the list of concerns for people in Slovakia is long. Since Saturday morning, Slovaks have been able to cast their votes in the early parliamentary elections, which are seen as pointing the way for democracy in the country and its positioning towards Russia and the EU.
Surveys recently indicated a neck-and-neck race between the populist Smer-SD party of former Prime Minister Robert Fico and the liberal Progressive Slovakia party of EU Vice President Michal Simecka. If they win the election, both parties would likely have to rely on coalition partners to achieve a majority in the 150-seat parliament.
Is Slovakia becoming “pro-Russian”?
But external observers are almost exclusively interested in one question: Is the EU and NATO country stopping its military aid to Ukraine, which is being attacked by Russia, or is it even taking a pro-Moscow stance? Slovakia has, among other things, delivered MiG fighter jets to Kiev.
At the center of this concern is the former long-term head of government Fico, who leads all polls with his Smer-SSD and who is labeled “pro-Russian” by his opponents. The former head of government has announced that he wants to stop military aid to Ukraine.
Deputy party leader Lubos Blaha dismissed the accusation of being “pro-Russian” in an interview with the German Press Agency: “It’s nonsense that we should be pro-Russian or pro-Putin.” A government led by his party will continue to help Ukraine, but not with weapons, but only with civilian goods.
“Progresivne Slovensko” has good chances
Since 2020, a conservative-populist-liberal four-party coalition under the then election winner Igor Matovic and his successor Eduard Heger has been in power in the country. This has discredited itself for many citizens through ongoing internal disputes and plunged the country into chaos during the corona pandemic, which President Zuzana Caputova also criticized. In May, she replaced the remaining coalition with a cabinet of officials under Ludovit Odor. The coalition parties, which have now splintered due to splits, now all fear that they will be thrown out of parliament in the upcoming election.
According to their own statements, voters who want to prevent a Fico comeback are now considering the liberal party “Progresivne Slovensko” (Progressive Slovakia – PS), which is not even represented in parliament, as an alternative. It is considered unsullied by scandals and promotes itself with the slogan: “Enough of the past! Let’s choose the future!”
The Ukraine war in numbers
War costs: 250 billion euros, refugees: 23 million, dead civilians: 9,000
Recently, the PS succeeded in stealing more and more potential voters from the other bourgeois parties. However, a triumph for the PS in the election could turn into a Pyrrhic victory – because if the other parties fail at the five percent hurdle, the PS would no longer have anyone with whom it could form a coalition. Then Fico would be the winner.
Mafia allegations against Robert Fico
The increasingly nationalistic Smer boss Fico, who led the government with a short interruption from 2006 to 2018, recently seemed to have been politically written off. After the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak in February 2018, suspicion arose that Fico’s government could be behind the crime. Kuciak had researched connections between the Italian mafia and Fico’s ruling party.
That turned out to be wrong, but the opponents who won in 2020 permanently attached the insult “Mafia” to him. In the course of the investigation, corruption networks were uncovered in which judges, prosecutors and top police and state administration officials appointed by the Smer government were involved. However, Fico is on the rise again today because of the unpopularity of his successors.
Independent political analyst Grigorij Meseznikov told the AFP news agency that the election would decide the country’s priorities “in foreign policy, defense and security policy,” but also “the future of democracy.”
Fico, “pro-Russian”?
As for Fico’s possible pro-Russian course in the event of an election victory, independent political scientists such as Radoslav Stefancik from the Bratislava University of Economics weaken such views: “Fico will need coalition partners. And they will not agree with him on everything.” In fact, apart from Fico, only two small right-wing parties no longer want to supply weapons to Ukraine.
Igor Danis also believes that classifying Smer as “pro-Russian” is wrong. The commentator from the Slovakian newspaper with the highest circulation, Pravda, recalled that Fico had always shown himself to be a staunch supporter of Europe during his time in government. Although he makes certain anti-American tones, he supports French President Emmanuel Macron’s line of creating a European Security Union emancipated from the USA.
Fico also distances himself from right-wing extremists: Anyone who questions Slovakia’s NATO membership cannot be considered as a coalition partner. He also wants to continue to help Ukraine against Russia, just not with weapons. Otherwise, he argues, Slovakia risks becoming a Russian target. He does not see himself as “pro-Russian”, but “pro-Slovak”, as he always emphasizes.
Lots of misinformation during the election
Slovakia has been inundated by a flood of misinformation during the election campaign. According to experts, around half of the 5.4 million inhabitants fall for false information. The country has been the target of such campaigns for years, but “the disinformation ecosystem” has “reached its peak” before this year’s election, says Peter Duboczi of the website Infosecurity.sk.
According to experts, three parties are primarily responsible for spreading anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian misinformation: the Smer-SD, the nationalist Republika and the Slovak National Party (SNS). This includes, for example, the unproven claim that the war in Ukraine began in 2014 with the killing of Russian civilians by Ukrainian “fascists” – a theory often spread by Moscow that Fico adopted during the election campaign.
Like the pro-Western parties, Smer has condemned the Russian attack on Ukraine from the start. This distinguishes it from the small, openly pro-Russian Slovak National Party SNS and the right-wing extremist Republika, which is even calling for an exit from NATO.
A total of 25 parties are running. According to opinion polls, nine of them have a realistic chance of entering parliament in Bratislava. The polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. In the event of technical problems, an extension is possible. Partial results of the vote counting are to be announced during the night on Sunday. The final result is expected on Sunday morning.