Status: 12/21/2022 11:24 am
The consumer mood of the Germans improved a little for the Christmas business. For January, the experts at market researcher GfK expect that the still poor consumer mood will slowly recover.
Despite the energy crisis and high prices, people in Germany are starting the new year a little more willing to buy. The barometer of the GfK market researchers in Nuremberg signals an increase of 2.3 points to minus 37.8 points for January. “With the third increase in a row, the consumer climate is slowly working its way out of the trough,” said GfK expert Rolf Bürkl. “The light at the end of the tunnel is getting a little brighter.” The federal government’s measures to cushion the skyrocketing energy costs were evidently having an effect.
Reluctance to buy still great
However, economists are not giving the all-clear. “The magic of Christmas doesn’t work, the consumer mood remains bad,” said Alexander Krüger from the private bank Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe. “The high real income losses caused by the increase in inflation hurt too much.” In terms of mood, it looks like a bottoming out. But there can be no talk of confidence.
The willingness of Germans to make larger purchases has increased again after a long dry spell for retailers. After the so-called propensity to buy showed a sustained downward trend from autumn 2021 to autumn of the current year, it rose again slightly in December.
“Despite the slight increase, the reluctance to buy remains high. The uncertainty caused by the multiple crises such as the pandemic, the Ukraine war and inflation is still high,” says GfK expert Bürkl. The recovery is “on shaky ground,” he warned.
Recession is still considered likely
Above all, the expectation of significantly higher heating bills in the spring of 2023 will apparently allow many consumers to save. “These funds are lacking in consumption elsewhere,” explained Bürkl. On the other hand, the persistently stable employment situation supports the propensity to consume, since the fear of unemployment is currently low.
Meanwhile, income expectations have risen for the third time in a row. According to GfK, the reason for this slight easing lies in the fact that energy prices have developed somewhat more moderately in recent weeks. In addition, the first wage agreements for 2023 gave consumers hope that the expected loss of purchasing power would not be as severe as feared.
However, according to the GfK survey, consumers continue to assume that Germany will slide into a recession. “However, it is likely to be less deep than was feared a few months ago,” said Bürkl. Many economists are currently expecting a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023. According to the Nuremberg market researchers, consumption will not be able to boost the economy due to the considerable loss of purchasing power in private households.