interview
Even more than a lack of ammunition, the Ukrainian army is suffering from a lack of personnel, says military analyst Gady after a visit to the front. He describes how Ukraine can withstand Russian pressure.
tagesschau.de: Reporting on the war in Ukraine is increasingly characterized by a pessimistic tone regarding Ukraine’s military situation. What picture did you see on your most recent visit to the front?
Franz Stefan Gady: Combat morale at the front is still very high. But compared to my visit before the start of the offensive a year ago, a certain lack of purpose is noticeable. At that time there was one goal that had to be achieved, the breakthrough of the Russian defense lines. At the moment there is a lack of prospects among the troops. What is the next step? Therefore, it may be difficult to maintain morale at current levels this year.
But I don’t see a collapse in morale. We have spoken, among other things, with senior military officials in Kiev and their active defense strategy for this year is that every piece of Ukrainian territory will be defended. The front should be held, but there may also be strategic retreats. And an army on defense is motivated differently than an army on the offensive.
To person
Franz-Stefan Gady is an independent analyst and military advisor. He is also a senior fellow at the Institute for International Studies in London and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security in Washington DC. He advises governments and armed forces in Europe and the United States on structural reform and the future of warfare. Field research and consulting activities took him several times to Ukraine, Afghanistan and Iraq, where he accompanied the Ukrainian armed forces, the Afghan army, as well as NATO troops and Kurdish militias on various missions. He is also a reserve officer.
“At the moment there is still enough artillery ammunition”
tagesschau.de: There are certainly several reasons for this. When it comes to artillery ammunition, the situation will be tense at least until the fall. How do you deal with this at the front?
Gady: We did not find this to be the main problem on our last visit to the front. And the soldiers at the front don’t see it that way either. I still remain optimistic about ammunition deliveries, at least for the artillery. My colleague Mike Kofman and I did the math, that the Ukrainian army needs to fire approximately 2,000 to 3,000 rounds per day to maintain a defensive strategy. Ukraine currently still has enough artillery ammunition for this, although the rate of fire seems to be steadily decreasing. And if the US aid package is still approved, it could only be days or weeks before this additional ammunition arrives. The main problem is the lack of staff.
tagesschau.de: Why is this – and how could it be solved?
Gady: It is the most difficult problem and cannot be solved immediately. It will take months before new troops can be sent to the front and probably won’t be ready before the end of the summer. They must be adequately trained, because the use of poorly trained soldiers increases the risk of high losses and reduces motivation and combat effectiveness – this was also shown by the counteroffensive last year.
The fact that this personnel problem exists became apparent last fall at the latest, and Ukraine could have reacted to it earlier. However, we in the West share responsibility for this personnel situation because Ukraine was not able to clearly calculate how much ammunition it would receive. If you can plan ahead, that is further motivation to carry out a mobilization. Admittedly, it is extremely unpopular with the population at the moment.
Too little Defenses
tagesschau.de: One problem we hear about is the lack of development of defense lines on the Ukrainian side. How did you experience it?
Gady: This is the third and immediate problem that we could see – a lack of defenses that have not been systematically trained. On the one hand, there are understandable reasons for this – an expansion could be seen as an admission that the area beyond these defenses cannot be reconquered in the near future.
But there are also structural problems. Unlike the Russian armed forces, the Ukrainian army has not assigned its own higher-level units, which only work in the second or third line of defense. Ukraine only has pioneering elements in individual brigades, and they can only expand the front line defended by this brigade. However, there is a clear intention to build and expand such facilities.
What problems the Russian army has
tagesschau.de: The Russians suffered heavy losses in the Battle of Avdiivka – they estimated them at 16,000 soldiers. And yet isn’t troop strength the crucial problem facing the Russian army?
Gady: The Russians have been able to maintain staffing levels consistently and manage to recruit tens of thousands of soldiers per month so that their losses are offset and the troops do not lose combat effectiveness. When it comes to artillery ammunition, I don’t see any real problem for the Russian armed forces this year and at least the first half of 2025, as long as there are enough replacement tubes for the guns.
Their bigger problem is equipment, particularly a lack of armored vehicles. We have seen that much older equipment is sometimes used to bring the soldiers to the front and transport them along the front on the battlefield itself. The losses of armored vehicles here are hurting the Russian army enormously.
Crushing 500 kilo bombs
tagesschau.de: The Russians still have air superiority, attacking on a large scale with drones, but this year also with modernized FHB-3000 glide bombs, whose production they have significantly increased. What role do they play?
Gady: These bombs have an enormous effect, also psychologically. Their hit rate is low. But the explosive power is impressive. During a winter visit we were able to see the craters left by these 500 kilo bombs.
When you hear a bomb like that exploding in the distance, it has a hugely unnerving effect. This was pointed out again and again in our conversations. At the height of the Battle of Avdiivka, dozens of these bombs were dropped within hours.
“The danger is real that an offensive will occur”
tagesschau.de: How do you assess the Russian army’s ability to go on the offensive?
Gady: I believe the Russian Armed Forces’ offensive capability will increase in the coming months unless they make some fatal operational or strategic mistake. Russia still has an average artillery superiority of 5:1 to 6:1, while at the same time there is no shortage of personnel and enough material to fight another major battle. We will therefore likely see in the coming months that Russian forces will slowly and steadily build pressure along various axes of attack along the front and then hope that a major breakthrough occurs.
But if the Russians suffer too much material losses, especially armored vehicles, that could be difficult. Nevertheless, there is a real danger that an offensive will occur in which Ukraine will have to give up front areas. This doesn’t have to happen in the immediate future, but it could happen in the last half of the year.
How Ukraine can persevere
tagesschau.de: Do you think Ukraine can hold out until defense production in Europe and the US picks up again?
Gady: DUkraine can probably hold out as long as the deficiencies I mentioned in the areas of personnel and ammunition are addressed. And I also believe that a partial collapse of the front does not immediately mean defeat in the war. It would make the situation more difficult. But if Ukraine manages to conserve its own troops, solve the personnel problem as quickly as possible, and at the same time take up well-developed defensive positions and also be supplied with ammunition, then I see a real chance that the Ukrainian armed forces will regroup and then maybe be able to take offensive action again in 2025.
It would be a big mistake if Ukraine tried to go on the offensive unprepared this year. Of course, it is fundamentally difficult for the military leadership to say under pressure over a year: “No great progress or victories are expected this year – we are just defending ourselves, but at the same time building up our armed forces.” This is a question of patience for the troops at the front.
The interview was conducted by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de