Situation in Afghanistan: Why did Berlin act so late?

The advance of the Taliban came faster than the German government expected. The Federal Foreign Office did not react to early warnings, research by the ARD capital studios.

It should sound like everything in the Foreign Ministry is under control: Last Friday it was five days since the Taliban captured the key city of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan and tightened their ring of siege around the capital.

Kai Küstner
ARD capital studio

The USA had already decided to send 3,000 soldiers to Kabul to secure the flight of their personnel. Then Heiko Maas stepped to the microphones. “We have been preparing for this situation for weeks”, with these words the German Foreign Minister announced that the embassy staff in Kabul was melting down to a rump team.

Serious doubts about weeks of preparation

There are serious doubts about the statement that one has been prepared for weeks. Also in the ministry itself. For weeks the German embassy in Kabul had warned of a risk to its staff: According to information from ARD capital studios The deputy German ambassador Hendrik van Thiel wrote in his situation report on Friday that “the urgent appeals by the embassy for a long time were only remedied this week”. In addition, the diplomat emphasized: “If that went wrong at any point this time, it would have been avoidable.” On site, one apparently felt left alone, the warnings from the embassy seem to have had no consequences.

The Foreign Office also apparently hoped on Friday that the Taliban would not dare to venture into Kabul – because the Islamists could have no interest in a bloody battle for the capital.

At least that’s what the Foreign Ministry said, according to information from ARD capital studios At the government press conference today, Christopher Burger, spokesman for the Federal Foreign Office, merely stated that all decisions by the crisis team in the Foreign Ministry would be made “in close coordination with the embassy”.

Should the Foreign Office have responded earlier?

The defense policy spokesman for the CDU-CSU parliamentary group, Henning Otte, said that ARD capital studioThe Foreign Office “could and should” have reacted earlier to the clear indications from the German Embassy: “Obviously, this information was assessed incorrectly or not assessed. It would have been better if we had reacted earlier, set up the airlift and saved the people be able.”

So it is little consolation that within the Federal Government the Foreign Ministry was not alone in its over-optimistic assessment of the situation. According to information from ARD capital studios From security circles, the Federal Intelligence Service did not forecast such a dynamic development of the situation – neither did the foreign partner services of the BND, including the US. The US secret services had expected a final takeover of power by the Taliban at the earliest after 30 to 90 days.

At the same time, there must have been an interest in the Federal Foreign Office in not wanting to speak badly about the situation because it was feared that it would give the Taliban even more impetus and demoralize the Afghan government and army.

Bundeswehr apparently not prepared

But it is not just the actions of the Federal Foreign Office that raise questions. The Bundeswehr was also obviously not prepared to be able to guarantee an evacuation at short notice. It was only in the middle of last week that the Federal Foreign Office and the Ministry of Defense raised the question of the conditions under which Germany could send A400M transport aircraft to Kabul ARD capital studio from security circles.

The Ministry of Defense has now sent paratroopers to secure the evacuation from Kabul airport. In a certain way, however, this creates a new problem, because the soldiers have to be flown out again.

How much longer can planes land in Kabul?

It is also questionable whether and for how long the Bundeswehr machines can land in Kabul at all. Today and yesterday there were chaotic scenes at the airport: Hundreds of Afghans hoped to leave the country and sometimes tried to storm the machines on the tarmac. The Americans are securing the airport together with the Turkish military, but the Taliban are controlling. who comes in.

In Berlin, the Federal Foreign Office and the Ministry of Defense are pointing a finger at each other when it comes to the question of who is responsible for crisis management. First of all, however, it is a matter of bringing those who are still on site to safety.