If you find your love story complicated at the start of autumn, you can always put things into perspective when it comes to the Poland-EU couple. Warsaw is in permanent tension with Brussels, with great provocative blows, calls to order, and attempted dissension. The latest example on Thursday, when the Polish Constitutional Court questioned the primacy of European law over national rights, yet one of the pillars of the 27.
The Polish Constitutional Court ruled that the interpretation made by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) of the European treaties is, on certain points, incompatible with the Polish Constitution, while Brussels has increased the number of judgments against Poland since 2016 and the coming to power of the nationalist party PiS (Law and Justice). And as it is well known, love stories usually end badly, the risk of a Brexit Polish way worries more and more. Simple cockfight or divorce?
Unbalanced balance of power
In the showdown that started this Thursday, it was Brussels that showed the muscles the most. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, pledged this Friday to “uphold the founding principles” of the EU on the primacy of European law and the judgments of the Court of Justice, while Warsaw recalled to on his side his desire to remain in the Union. Dorota Dakowska, professor of political science at the Lumière Lyon 2 University and specialist in Poland, confirms this inequality: “The Polish government is not in a position of strength. On the contrary, there is a big risk: the potential loss of billions of euros from the European recovery plan. “
Historically, the Poles are very attached to Europe, further recalls Amélie Zima, doctor of political science at the University of Paris-Nanterre and specialist in the Polish system. In 2019, 84% of Poles have a favorable opinion of the European Union, and in 2021, 81% were in favor of keeping Poland in the 27. Faced with this love of the people, “Polexit is not up to the task. agenda: it is too risky politically. The idea is rather to try a Europe à la carte: stay in the EU by recognizing only the CRUE stops that are suitable for PiS ”, notes the expert.
Ongoing legal chaos
No farewell for the moment on the part of Poland, which far from a divorce, sees itself embarked in a “legal chaos”, as Amélie Zima calls it: “The Polish Constitutional Court delivered this judgment in a composition with “doubler” judges – judges chosen by the PiS party instead of other judges appointed by the previous legislature. However, the composition of the Constitutional Court with doublers is not considered as a legal jurisdiction by the EU.
The Polish judges, for their part, fall into a sacred dilemma: “Either comply with the judgment of the Constitutional Court, or ignore it by virtue of the primacy of European law. Judges who decide to maintain the primacy of European law could face disciplinary proceedings, arbitrary transfers or be dismissed from their functions, ”continues the expert.
Reduced room for maneuver for the European Union
No voluntary departure from the Poles therefore. As for Europe, its field of action is thin reminds Dorota Dakowska: “It is not possible to exclude Poland. “It is legally possible to suspend the right to vote in the Council of the EU of the representative of a member state:” This requires unanimity of the members, or Poland risks being supported by the Hungary of Viktor Orban who pioneered attacks on democratic institutions and freedoms. I would say that the Polish government is self-excluding – politically – insofar as it ceases to be a credible partner in the European Union. “
The most effective, and the most restrictive for Warsaw, remains the attack on the wallet. Warsaw is to receive 23.9 billion in endowments and 12 billion in loans, says Amélie Zima: “The granting of this recovery plan has already been suspended for two months since Poland has not abolished the Disciplinary Chamber of the Supreme Court as it had undertaken to do so following a decision of the Court of Justice of the EU ”.
We remain friends ?
But that is not all, the Commission could also suspend the allocations of Poland within the framework of the European budget 2021-2027 which amount to 105 billion euros by applying the mechanism making the granting of European funds conditional on compliance. rule of law.
For all these reasons, the Polish government should eventually find an arrangement to meet the demands of the European Union, according to our two experts. On the other hand, the European Commission will continue to threaten rather than punish in the face of
Hungary and Poland, “because it has no interest in seeing exits multiply”, supports Dorota Dakowska. A good big argument more than a breakup, in short.