Will the price of chicken, pork, or even milk increase in the long term in supermarkets? This is what is at stake trade negotiations which will start this month. They bring together producers, food manufacturers (who make ready meals, pasta, etc.) and distributors (Leclerc, Auchan, Carrefour, etc.) and are used to define the prices that will be charged in 2022 on the shelves.
As every year, each one will try to pull out of the game: the “sellers” (farmers and industrialists) obviously seek to pull the prices upwards, when the “buyers” (mass distribution) wish the opposite. Traditionally, buyers have managed to control their costs: the increase in prices in mass distribution never exceeded 2% since 2012. They have even fallen between 2014 and 2016. But today, several elements could tip the balance on the side of sellers.
Already real increases
“There is a reality that is imposed on everyone, recognizes Thierry Desouches, spokesperson for Système U. Certain agricultural materials (like wheat) increased ; the price of metal packaging, cardboard, paper, also. The price of energy has increased, and that of transport too. The cost increases are real ”. According to the union of feed manufacturers for livestock Snia, the average basket of raw materials for feeding pigs, ruminants and poultry has swelled by more than 30% in one year.
Large-scale distribution can all the less ignore this observation since it has already practiced price increases for its ” private labels “. These are brands managed directly by the banners (“Pouce” for Auchan, Marque Repère for Leclerc, for example), on which they do not negotiate with the food industry. “Some private label pastes, oils, canned tomatoes cost a little more,” notes Emily Mayer, a specialist in mass consumption in the food industry. IRI analysis company.
A new law to come
To this increase in costs will be added another element, that of the law. MPs and senators reached an agreement last week on the text says “Egalim 2”. It aims to strengthen the first “Egalim” law, which was intended in particular to bring higher remuneration to producers, but which has
largely failed.
The new bill provides for the generalization of written contracts between the farmer and the company that will transform his products, over a minimum of three years, taking into account production costs. And when the manufacturer goes to negotiate with the distributor, the part of the price corresponding to the cost of agricultural raw materials will be made “non-negotiable”. In other words, any increase in wheat, milk or any other agricultural product will have to be reflected in the prices charged all along the chain.
The purchasing power trap
The specialists interviewed by 20 minutes So all agree: in view of the various elements mentioned above, prices in the shelves should increase in 2022. And logically, the theme of purchasing power, politically flammable, may then reappear, with the well-known little music: ” everything is increasing ”. Except that not everything is so simple.
“For now, the prices of daily products are down compared to last year,” recalls Emily Mayer. In other words, the French whose income has not fallen have seen their purchasing power increase in this area. In addition, continues the specialist in mass distribution, “for the past fifteen years, the consumer price index [IPC, qui détermine l’inflation] increased about three times faster than the consumer price index [PGC] “. In other words, shopping has become cheaper and cheaper.
See you next year
“Food is a sensitive issue because it is a regular purchase. You have to take out your card or your wallet to pay, so you will be more careful than an automatic subscription, explains Thierry Desouches. But the increases we are talking about will be of the order of a few cents or tens of cents ”.
“The increases will be reasonable,” abounds Jean-Philippe André, president of the National Association of Food Industries (Ania). For example, the pie chart which cost 1.50 euro will go down to 1.55 euro. We are fortunate to work on products that have relatively low values ”. To complain about purchasing power in 2022, it will therefore be necessary to turn to its gas or electricity bill.