We must not swear to anything, but the risks of a military conflict between Russia and the European Union are more than negligible. The two giants are above all likely to clash over the purse, the 27 having already planned a first round of economic sanctions following the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine.
Russia, not exactly the country most fond of the concept of turning the other cheek, should retaliate with its own financial retaliation. What to make Bercy tremble? Not really, according to the Minister of the Economy himself, Bruno Le Maire, evoking a “French economy with little exposure” and “contained” consequences in the event of a commercial attack.
Russia, colossus with clay money
His ministry, questioned by 20 minutes, is rather reassuring about the weak impact of Moscow for the French economy: in 2021, exports to Russia totaled 6.5 billion euros, making the country of the tsars the fifteenth largest market in France and the seventh outside European Union. Russia represents only 1.3% of French exports. On the reverse side, France imports 9.7 billion euros per year from Russia, or 1.7% of total imports from Paris, mainly gas. The country of Tolstoy and Dostoievsky is only the seventeenth supplier of France.
“Russia remains a real geopolitical and military power, but it is an economically dwarf,” says Sébastien Jean, economist specializing in international trade and director of research at the National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Agriculture. environment (Inrae). Russian GDP, for example, represents just under 60% of French GDP. Consequently, “an economic war would be more costly for Moscow than for Paris,” adds the expert.
War and peace
Currently, 700 subsidiaries of French companies are established on Russian territory, specifies Bercy. Are they more exposed than the rest of the economy? “In the vast majority of cases, these subsidiaries are of relatively limited importance on the scale of the group to which they belong,” assures Sébastien Jean. This is enough to limit the risks, especially since the Russians have every interest in preserving them. According to the French Ministry of the Economy, these subsidiaries would employ 200,000 workers in the country, making France “the first foreign recruiter in Russia”, supports Jacques Sapir, director of studies at the School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences. Particularly in the fields of the automobile with Renault, mass distribution with Auchan and hydrocarbons with Total. However, in a country that is experiencing inflation at 8% and in the grip of serious economic sanctions, not self-sabotage its internal trade seems a relevant strategy.
“Russia is making great efforts to attract foreign investors, it is not going to ruin everything for a few weeks of crisis,” predicts Sébastien Jean. Same analysis on the side of Jacques Sapir: “In the current state of things, Russia will do nothing against the French subsidiaries on its soil”.
Precarious implantation, strong kidneys
Even in the worst scenario, if these subsidiaries were to have to leave the territory, “the more established groups – such as Auchan, Total, Renault – have fairly solid backs and large market shares outside Russia to suffer the shock without too much damage”, assures Jacques Sapir. The example of the automobile flagship speaks volumes: Renault is the leading car producer in Russia – its Lada brand represents a third of new car registrations in the country – through its subsidiary Avtovaz. But this subsidiary weighs only six of the company’s 46 billion euros in revenue in 2021or only 13%.
For Jacques Sapir, the only risk concerns industrial SMEs that are highly dependent on their Russian presence, up to 40 or 50% of their profits. But let the latter be reassured, Sébastien Jean persists and signs: “Russia will be rather lenient with companies on its territory, it is in its interests”. If the wallet is sometimes enough to start a war, it can also be a reason for the status quo.