Russia
Shocking exercise – this is how Putin’s tanks could divide Ukraine
The Russian army’s thermobaric weapons can unleash the effects of a tactical nuclear bomb. With them, the breakthrough of the tanks would prepare.
©PR
The West not only fears an invasion of Ukraine, the invasion has already been played out in a simulation exercise. The operation ends badly for Kiev, the country is cut in half.
The West had already played out the invasion of Ukraine in November 2021. Only on paper and without training troops. The close cooperation with the dictator of Belarus, Lukashenko, opens up opportunities for the Russian army that Kiev can hardly guard against. The war game describes three staggered assault operations by Russian ground forces. From the north of Belarus the 1st Guards Tank Army would push past Kiev, from the east the 20th Mixed Guards Army would advance to the Dnieper and from the sea and the Crimea the 8th Guards Army would advance to Odessa.
What is interesting about the model is that the Separatist areas in the east do not play a central role in the offensive operations. This is where provocations or false flag operations could take place, providing the pretext for an invasion. But since the strongest Ukrainian forces are stationed there in developed defensive positions, the area is initially spared.
Deep cuts in the land
The war plan described, on the other hand, is bolder than a mere attack on fortifications and relies on extensive operations by the armored units. Little is known in the West that at the time when Hitler’s generals were preparing plans for the Blitz, Vladimir Triandafillov’s theory of “deep operations” was being formulated in Russia. Both approaches differ in the tactical approach. What they have in common is that limited breakthroughs in the front line are used for deep advances into enemy space.
How is the war game going? At the start of the invasion, Russia will use its crushing superiority in long-range weapons and air force to destroy Ukraine’s planes, helicopters and air defenses. To do this, command and communication centers, transport hubs and magazines would be switched off. During the invasion of Iraq, this phase lasted weeks, and only then did the ground troops launch the “Desert Storm”. Russia, on the other hand, could immediately use its troops stationed on the border. Artillery plays a larger role in Russian military doctrine than in the West.
After World War II, Stalin called artillery the goddess of modern war. Ukrainian troops are expected to come under fire in Donbass and along the borders, keeping them in position. That would also correspond to the doctrine of Triandafillow, who wanted to fight the enemy along the entire front parallel to the desired breakthrough.
A remnant of Ukraine remains
The brunt of the fighting would be borne by the elite formation of the 1st Guards Tank Army (“The hammer that smashes every defense”). It would push past Kiev via Korosten, Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia into Moldova, dividing Ukraine in half. The big cities would bypass the tanks, only the railway junctions would have to be taken. The remaining area to the east could be split up by the Russian army by attacking the Dnieper. The spikes would not be aimed at the bridges that Ukrainian troops could blow up, but at the barrages and dams on the river.
The larger towns would be surrounded by Russian second line units. Without utilities, electricity and water, the towns full of civilians could not last long. The offensive from the Crimea would be less important, it would separate Ukraine from the sea.
In the east, Kiev was left with separate “islands” of its own zones. The Russian troops would force the breakthrough with rockets and artillery. Once in motion, they could not be stopped by Ukrainian forces. In the open field, absolute air supremacy would be devastating. After losing its own air force, Kiev could hardly move any troops, and resistance would have to be fought with the soldiers and equipment that are available locally.
This is how the exercise scenario imagines the invasion.
© Thomas C. Theiner/Twitter
resistance with guerrilla tactics
The war game describes a scenario that Kiev can hardly master. Were the sickle cut to succeed, all that would remain of free Ukraine would be a mutilated rump state in the west. Kiev’s chance lies in guerrilla warfare and in stubborn resistance in the urban areas through which Russian spearheads must pass. For this reason, man-portable guided missiles that can be easily concealed and carried in a passenger car are high on Kiev’s wish-list (“Why a modern rocket-propelled grenade couldn’t stop a Russian invasion”).
The resistance put up by Chechen fighters in Grozny should give hope. However, one should not forget that the city was transformed into a lunar landscape, and the Chechens were ready to accept enormous losses of civilians and fighters of their own. Also not very encouraging: Putin won the war in the Caucasus by allying himself with local groups.
Source: medium