Scottish ruling party debates independence
Humza Yousaf, First Minister of Scotland, speaks at the Scottish National Party (SNP) special party conference at Caird Hall in Dundee. photo
© Jane Barlow/PA/AP/dpa
Many people in Scotland want to return to the EU seven years after the Brexit referendum. For them it is clear: For this, a detachment from Great Britain is necessary. Sounds easy. But it is not.
The Scottish independence movement is raging in a debate about the right path to secession from Britain. Prime Minister Humza Yousaf presented a plan at a special party conference of his Scottish National Party (SNP). But activists outside the SNP – as well as some internal opponents – have criticized the plan to declare the next British general election a de facto referendum as half-baked.
Yousaf’s idea: If the SNP wins the majority of Scottish seats in the British Parliament in the vote, which is expected to take place in autumn 2024, this should count as a vote for independence. “If the SNP wins this election, then the people have spoken,” Yousaf said in the city of Dundee, a pro-independence hub. On Sunday he confirmed on the BBC that he wanted to start negotiations with the British government immediately. The goal: either London gives the regional parliament in Edinburgh the right to call a new referendum, or grants Scotland independence directly.
There’s a catch
But what sounds simple has quite a catch. Because both the conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his challenger Keir Starmer from the Labor Party, which is clearly in the lead in the polls, reject secession. The law is on their side: In December 2022, the British Supreme Court ruled that London must agree to a referendum. In a first vote in 2014, a majority of Scots voted for the union. But that was before Brexit, which in turn is opposed by most people in the northernmost part of Britain.
Yousaf is now taking up an idea from his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, whose confidant he is. “The first line on the first page” of the SNP election program should say that a vote for the SNP is a vote for independence, said the 38-year-old. Yousaf is encountering headwind in his own camp.
Without the support of other “Yes” forces, success is impossible, complained Neale Hanvey from the Alba party. The organization All Under One Banner criticized the plans as vague. Negotiations are not necessary, but the clear statement that a majority in the election actually means detachment. Sara Salyers of the Salvo movement told the National newspaper: “We have run out of options and time.” The SNP hesitates – and is therefore losing voters.
SNP plunged into chaos
In fact, the SNP has recently fallen behind Labor in polls for the first time in many years. After the resignation of Sturgeon, the face of the independence campaign, the ruling party, which was considered unbeatable, fell into chaos. First, the members wore themselves out in the debate about Sturgeon’s successor, then a financial affair escalated over allegedly misappropriated donations. Sturgeon was also temporarily arrested for questioning.
Politically, the independence movement is weakened. In fact, the desire for detachment is quite widespread. On Saturday, around 6,000 people marched to the site of the Battle of Bannockburn, where in 1314 Scottish leader Robert the Bruce crushed the English and won a decisive victory on the road to independence. Polls also show consistent 48 percent approval, regardless of Sturgeon’s resignation, as prominent election researcher John Curtice analyzed for the BBC.
But that also shows: There is no momentum, Yousaf has a lot of work ahead of him. At the base, however, unrest is growing. Former Party Vice President Jim Fairlie asked if the SNP was prepared to engage in civil disobedience and refuse to cooperate with London. “We’ll see. But I doubt it,” Fairlie said.
BBC analysis of Scottish poll numbers “National” report