Scholz visits Moscow: tour de force with an open outcome

Chancellor Scholz showed diplomatic sensitivity and backbone during his visit to Moscow. And he showed Russian President Putin how united the West is on the Ukraine issue.

Scholz and Putin talked to each other for four hours. Despite the sometimes serious differences that became clear at the joint press conference, the important message after the Chancellor’s inaugural visit is: Both sides are ready to continue the dialogue and negotiations in the Ukraine conflict.

Even if one shouldn’t take Putin’s promise at face value: When asked whether he wanted war in Ukraine, Putin answered credibly: “Of course not!” Also positive: Even before Scholz’s inaugural visit, Russia had the first troops withdrawn from the border area with Ukraine. This can be a first sign of relaxation.

Worlds lie between the perspectives

Nevertheless, it became clear that there are still worlds between the assessments of Scholz and Putin. Even if the negotiations continue for months and both sides are willing to approach each other, it is currently difficult to imagine how the rifts can be overcome. It is impossible for the West to respond to Putin’s maximum demands for a reversal of NATO’s eastward expansion.

And Putin made it clear that a verbal promise from the West that Ukraine would not become a NATO member in the foreseeable future was not enough for him. He insists on written guarantees.

Even if the outcome of the conflict remains uncertain, the Chancellor’s diplomatic journey was a tour de force that paid off. The federal government and the western alliance have learned from the mistakes of 2014. At the time, NATO members were caught off guard by the Russian attack on Ukraine and were divided.

More clarity about possible sanctions

This time the West is united like never before. Scholz dispelled existing doubts during his visits to Washington, Kiev and Moscow. The close coordination with the presidents of France and the USA, the revitalization of the Weimar Triangle with Poland and France and the solidarity with the Baltic countries were particularly important. Scholz also leaves no doubt that the “Nord Stream 2” natural gas pipeline will not go into operation if Russia attacks Ukraine.

Scholz showed diplomatic sensitivity in Moscow: he called on Russia to de-escalate and at the same time emphasized that sustainable security in Europe cannot be achieved against Russia, but only with Russia.

Scholz also showed backbone towards Putin: the Chancellor dryly rejected Putin’s portrayal of NATO as an aggressor in the Yugoslav war, with reference to the genocide at the time.

Navalny, Memorial, Deutsche Welle

The Chancellor also confidently addressed difficult issues, such as the sentencing of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, the ban on the civil rights group Memorial and the crackdown on Deutsche Welle.

And when Putin sang a hymn of praise for his friend Gerhard Schröder and his commitment to natural gas, Scholz made it clear: “As far as Nord Stream 2 is concerned, I don’t want to comment further on the private-sector activities of a former politician.”

“Where is Scholz” was asked on social media two weeks ago. The new chancellor was too passive in the Ukraine crisis, critics accused him of hiding in the chancellery.

Two weeks later, Scholz has proven that he is doing everything possible to prevent a Russian attack on Ukraine. However, no one knows whether the shuttle diplomacy of the past few days will be successful, except perhaps the Russian President.