analysis
Chancellor Scholz used his government statement to justify himself and presented himself as a doer. But he failed to provide a concrete timetable for the 2024 budget. The opposition responded with attacks.
Olaf Scholz, who clearly wants to appear as a sovereign, stable statesman on this day for all the world, becomes very quiet at one point in his government statement: At the end of a sentence later in the speech, he almost tonelessly admits the actual message: It’s okay The budget for the coming year is about exploring scope, setting priorities, “but also limiting spending”. There it is, hidden in minute 17 of his government statement.
First, however, the former lawyer from Scholz speaks in legal jargon, who wants to justify himself in a tangibly professional manner – and counter the interpretation that they walked into the budget disaster against their better judgment: A lot of things in dealing with the debt brake have not yet been clearly clarified from a legal point of view – “In this situation, we made budget policy assessments two years ago, which have now been legally rejected by the Constitutional Court.” This created clarity. It seems as if he wants to send a very clear message about having a clear conscience.
However, he does not mention the Federal Audit Office’s warnings at the time in this regard – nor does he mention the fact that Finance State Secretary Werner Gatzer, who previously worked under Scholz and other finance ministers, has just been placed into temporary retirement by Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP).
time for Justifications
From the Chancellor’s point of view, it is understandable that he does not dwell on the unfortunate past more than necessary. He takes more time to specifically explain all of last year’s special expenses in order to subsequently justify the second supplementary budget for this year 2023 – from support for Ukraine and its refugees to Ahrtal aid. This addendum with the renewed suspension of the debt brake became necessary after the Karlsruhe judgment in order to correspond to the logic of the judgment.
“One thing is clear: This ruling creates a new reality for the federal government and for all current and future governments – at the federal and state levels,” says Scholz. He emphasizes: “A reality that, however, makes it more difficult to achieve important and widely shared goals for our country.” Also because unforeseen major crises have shaken the country in the past two years – all together challenges “the likes of which our republic has probably never experienced in this concentration and severity.”
“Confidence” is missing
The SPD politician doesn’t sugarcoat anything, but tries to use a firm voice in his 23-minute government statement to portray the doer who is taking on these challenges. He repeats his promise to citizens from 2022 that no one will be left behind in difficult times. However: The hopeful word “confidence”, one of Scholz’s favorite terms, is missing this time from his lecture at the lectern in the Bundestag.
No apology
He also does not offer an apology for the failure of the previous traffic light budget policy. Right from the start, Scholz emphasizes the “first-time” nature of the judgment. Scholz’s narrative goes like this: That we would have done it differently if we had known better.
The parliamentarians of the traffic light coalition are already becoming clearer: Green MPs, for example, clearly speak of a “mistake” in the debate and: “We misjudged it, we regret that.” But on the fringes of Parliament, the Greens also express understanding for the Chancellor’s more forward-looking approach. Scholz left SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich to say that this was anything but a “national bankruptcy”.
Scholz is currently at a low point in his chancellorship. And we must continue to signal at the traffic lights: We all have to make – and create – compromises. Perhaps that’s why the final applause for his speech was more short and polite than enthusiastic.
There is also no timetable for the 2024 budget
Anyone who wanted to hear a concrete timetable for the adoption of the 2024 budget was also disappointed – a signal that some country leaders would have wanted in order to be able to plan. Why did Scholz remain vague here? The traffic light itself is still divided over the further procedure, which was evident from a letter from the finance minister to the parliamentary groups yesterday, but also from the speeches of the other traffic light coalition members at the Bundestag debate on the government declaration. While the SPD parliamentary group would prefer to finalize the budget for the coming year this year, for Lindner it sounds more like the first half of 2024. The Chancellor therefore probably leaves room for interpretation: “Care takes precedence over speed.”
In this respect, Scholz was unable to be more specific from his point of view today – almost two weeks after the Federal Constitutional Court’s far-reaching ruling. There are still internal debates to be had and compromises to be reached, especially with the FDP still need to be negotiated.
This time it has to be legal
But it is also clear in traffic light circles: This time everything has to be legally binding. Because another one like that You can no longer afford a warning shot from Karlsruhe. Before the summer break, Karlsruhe had already slowed down the adoption of the Building Energy Act: the argument was that there was too little time for parliamentary deliberation.
All of this is fodder for the destructive forces in the opposition, especially the AfD. And the CDU seems to enjoy continuing to threaten the government with going to Karlsruhe. In this respect, the traffic light must expect a lawsuit against the 2024 budget again as soon as it is passed.
Union Confrontation course
The Union is currently on a collision course, at least in the federal government under the leadership of Friedrich Merz: Anyone who still believed in a constructive opposition – with this day it has become extremely unlikely. Merz denied Scholz any ability to lead the country. And he even devalues his own party colleague Kai Wegner, Berlin’s governing mayor: “The decisions are made in the German Bundestag, not in Berlin’s town hall.” Wegner, after all the first Union politician to lead the city-state with the CDU since 2001, described reforming the debt brake as worth considering. He is not the only CDU state leader who thinks this way.
Merz doesn’t mention Prime Minister Daniel Günther at all. Günther has already declared an emergency in Schleswig-Holstein for 2024 with the help of the opposition. The government factions mention Günther all the more often that day.