Status: 05/09/2022 05:15 a.m
The North has voted – what does that mean for the West? A week before the important elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, federal politicians are looking for the signal effect. Not easy. Five insights.
Kiel today, Düsseldorf tomorrow
Rather not. State elections are state elections, as the SPD’s overwhelming election victory in Saarland recently showed. Six weeks ago, Anke Rehlinger got the absolute majority there and drove the CDU out of the state chancellery, but this clearly had no impact on the elections in Schleswig-Holstein. When the winning parties in Kiel are now talking about tailwind for next week’s election in North Rhine-Westphalia, there is always a lot of hope. Respectively political spin.
Strong incumbents are hard to beat
Kiel shows once again: there is nothing to be gained against an incumbent with charisma. Daniel Günther achieves top ratings, and not just among CDU supporters. No change of mood far and wide. And if the opposition then comes up with an opponent who has spent the entire election campaign making his name known in the country, you don’t stand a chance. In this respect, the SPD defeat was one with an announcement. Even Ralf Stegner was shocked that the expected defeat turned into a crash on a historical scale. In 2009, the ex-state and faction leader got the worst result of the North SPD so far – 25.4 percent. From today’s perspective almost a dream result.
Weak incumbents, on the other hand, can be beaten: In Saarland, the deputy head of government also won due to the weakness and mistakes of CDU man Tobias Hans. Rehlinger outshined him, the better she staged herself, the paler he looked.
The SPD high flight is over
After their victory in the Bundestag elections and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in the fall, leading comrades were already proclaiming the “social democratic decade”. The years of weakness of the SPD should be over. And the flight of fancy actually continued in the small Saarland. In small Schleswig-Holstein it ends abruptly – also for the reasons mentioned above. In the most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the race between the CDU and SPD is open, which is also due to the fact that there is no beaming incumbent.
But what must worry the Chancellor Party: there is currently no tailwind from Berlin for the election campaigners. Scholz has been criticized for his sparse communication in connection with the Ukraine war in recent weeks and enabled the opposition around CDU leader Merz to push him into the role of the driven, at least in public perception. The chancellor in times of war is currently not likely to be a draft horse for country comrades who are campaigning for elections. The fact that SPD chief election campaigner Thomas Kutschaty also relies on Scholz therefore harbors a certain risk.
Günther’s victory is a confirmation for Merz
Clear no. But of course the federal CDU absorbed the election victory in the north like a sponge. But he shows: The CDU can still win. Merz can also use this good news and the beautiful pictures of beaming winners, as his time as party leader began with the loss of power in Saarland. Now, election winner Günther never belonged to the Merz camp, so his victory has little to do with the federal chairman or his course. Günther’s integrative style of politics also differs significantly from Merz’s confrontational way of doing politics.
Especially since Günther’s weight in the federal party is likely to increase after his second election victory. After all, not many in the CDU get 40 percent results. His name is now also mentioned when there is speculation about the Union’s next candidate for chancellor. At 48, Günther belongs to the future of the CDU. If he wants to.
The AfD is finished
It’s probably not that far yet, but their triumphal march into parliament seems to have stopped for the time being. In Schleswig-Holstein, for the first time, she failed to re-enter a state parliament. In Saarland she had just managed to do that. Disputed state associations are likely to be a reason for the decline in popularity. AfD topics such as refugees or Corona are also working less and less well, and the proximity of some AfD politicians to Russia should also weaken them.