Thirty emerging and Western countries are meeting in Jeddah on Saturday and Sunday to discuss a future peace plan between kyiv and Moscow.
Thirty delegations gathered, but not Russia. Saudi Arabia is hosting talks on Saturday August 5 and Sunday August 6 to discuss ways to promote peace in Ukraine. The full list of participating countries has not been revealed, but Ukraine, Western powers, as well as developing countries, such as Brazil and India, are expected to attend. Russia was not invited.
These talks are an opportunity for Saudi Arabia to try to mediate in the conflict in Ukraine, especially in the footsteps of Turkey. Franceinfo interviewed Camille Lons, consultant at the Paris School of Economics and specialist in Gulf diplomacy, to understand the Saudi initiative.
Franceinfo: Are you surprised to see Saudi Arabia holding talks to promote peace in Ukraine?
Camille Lons: It’s surprising in the sense that, initially, we didn’t necessarily expect the Saudis on the Ukrainian file. But it fits into this more general trend of the role that intermediate and non-Western powers like Brazil or India want to take on. These countries have not always had a say and they may want to be part of the peace process.
The Saudis want to appear as important players on the international scene with Western powers and more particularly the United States. The Americans remain their privileged security partner, but the relationship has been dulled a little lately, so by positioning themselves as mediators, they are trying to gain influence, by carrying a different vision of the world, not necessarily aligned with Westerners. Their mediating role on Ukraine clearly helps their recognition with the BRICS for a possible membership [le Brésil, la Russie, l’Inde, la Chine et l’Afrique du Sud doivent étudier la candidature saoudienne lors de leur prochain sommet, fin août].
This mediation effort is also part of a more general trend in Saudi Arabia: for years, the country has been trying to establish itself as a regional power, capable of having influence on major international issues. . A few years ago, the Saudis had a role as facilitators of talks in conflicts in the Horn of Africa. They have also led attempts at mediation between India and Pakistan lately. This role is part of the effort to soft-power Saudi Arabia, which extends into almost all sectors, including sports and culture.
What relations does Saudi Arabia have with Ukraine and Russia? How has she positioned herself since the beginning of the conflict?
From the beginning, the Gulf countries were quite hesitant to take a stand against Russia and to take measures on energy production, on gas and oil, which would have amplified the sanctions. Riyadh nevertheless supported the UN Security Council resolutions denouncing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as that denouncing the Russian annexation of territories in the east of the country. But this hesitation of the Gulf countries can be explained by several reasons: first, by their desire not to interfere internationally and therefore to multiply partnerships. For the Saudis, it can also be explained because they have established a specific relationship with Russia within the framework of OPEC+. [l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole]which makes them indirect players in the conflict, on the energy issue.
The war in Ukraine enabled them to consolidate their political weight internationally because they had a role as regulators of energy prices: they were asked to put an end to their policy of reducing their oil production. Limiting their exports caused an increase in the price of a barrel on an international scale, which had the consequence of limiting the impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia. The Russians were able to export their production at high prices and this decision had a direct impact on the development of the conflict in Ukraine.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia wants to maintain a balance in the Ukrainian file. The Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, felt that the door should not be closed to Ukraine either, that there could be a diplomatic opportunity. This is why he initiated the arrival of Volodymyr Zelensky at the top of the Arab League, in May. Alongside Turkey, Riyadh has played an unexpected role of mediator, in September 2022, which allowed an exchange of ten prisoners between Moscow and kyiv. With these talks opening in Jeddah, their goal is to keep all diplomatic channels open, to have a working relationship with the various powers involved and to continue to position themselves in this balance between Russia and Ukraine. , avoiding taking a stand for one or the other.
Ukraine will be present at these talks, but not Russia, which has not been invited. What do you expect from it?
I don’t think we can expect any very concrete progress on the Ukrainian file. Already, because it must be specified that these are not negotiations, but discussions around the ten-point peace plan proposed by Ukraine. Ukrainians will have an opportunity to present their point of view to emerging countries. But these powers are not close to agreeing with the proposals made by Volodymyr Zelensky: for example, on the Ukrainian pre-requisite of withdrawal of all Russian troops from their territory before negotiating. Countries like India or Brazil have sought to maintain neutrality in the conflict and will not be ready to openly display themselves in this way.
In terms of mediation, the Saudis do not have the clout to achieve this. They are the hosts and facilitators of the discussions, but to have the capacity to mediate as such, it is necessary to have greater economic and political weight to advance the compromises. On the other hand, the question that arises is: will they succeed in convincing China to participate? It did not take part in the last discussions although it is the only country which can weigh on Russia. Riyadh and Beijing have been getting closer lately, but will that convince the Chinese to come? We can’t tell yet.
But the fact that these talks are taking place is in itself cause for celebration for the Saudis. The organization of these discussions is already positive for their international influence.