San Marina in compulsory liquidation. Twenty-six Galeries Lafayette stores placed under safeguard by the commercial court. Kookaï placed in receivership. Go Sport and Gap France are looking for buyers… At the start of 2023, companies are really upset. From a global point of view? February 15, the Banque de France publishes its monthly report on business failures. Cumulatively over the last twelve months (between February 2022 and January 2023), 42,640 failures were recorded, i.e. 51.6% more than the previous year.
Should we prepare for a annus 2023 horribilis, shaken by an explosion of bankruptcies among companies? If there should be an increase, the term “explosion” is not appropriate, explains Stéphanie Villers, macroeconomist and adviser at PwC France. Because what we have been witnessing for a few months, and which should continue throughout the year, is rather, according to her, a “normalization”. Covid aid, from the famous mantra “Whatever the cost”, has dried up since the summer of 2021. However, “they had artificially kept many companies alive”, develops Anne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at the office. information and economic forecasts (BIPE). According to the expert, there would thus be between 6 and 13% of “zombie companies”, which would have disappeared without massive government aid.
The Covid-19 did not destroy, it anesthetized
Back to the group photo. Admittedly, this total of 42,640 failures over twelve months is much higher than what we experienced during the Covid-19 years. But it is 17% lower than the pre-pandemic level. In 2019, 51,145 crashes were recorded, compared to only 29,845 in 2020 and 27,609 in 2021. The situation therefore recovered slightly in 2022, but “the ”normalization” process is far from over and should continue throughout 2023 and 2024,” warns Anne-Sophie Alsif. We might as well prepare for other Camaïeu and San Marina in the months to come. Especially since the process is “slowed down – or nuanced -” by the good economic health of France, “between very low unemployment and some public aid, in particular the tariff shield or remnants of the ”Quoi qu’il en costs””, develops the expert.
We dissect the detailed data from the Banque de France, we realize that the sectors which experienced the most failures before the health crisis (construction, trade and automobile repair) are… the most affected after the crisis. Similarly, the sectors least affected before Covid (industry, transport and warehousing) are still the least affected today.
In other words, “the coronavirus has not upset the order of things or changed the companies most affected. He only paused, ”continues Stéphane Villers. It should be remembered in particular that with regard to the French mid-range, which has been particularly hard hit in recent months, the signs of a loss of momentum dated back to well before Patient 0 in Wuhan. The sector had lost 5% of turnover per year since the economic crisis of 2007-2008, indicated in October 2022 Pascale Hébel, co-director of a marketing consulting company.
The slow return to normal
It is therefore a return to fatality and to business as usual, according to Stéphanie Villers: “We could have forgotten about it for two years, but the economy has always worked with a lot of failures, crashes, and, conversely, business creation. Darwin applied to capitalism: only the fittest survive, she explains. “Without state aid, a company that is unable to modernize its production system finds itself ultimately in an unbalanced situation.
We therefore reassure ourselves (as we can), things – except for two years – have always been like this. And the dreaded disaster scenario for 2023 is not yet written: “To speak of an explosion of business failures, we would need a much, much higher number. Nothing says today that we are moving towards this hypothesis, ”reassures Anne-Sophie Alsif.
On the contrary, after a difficult year 2022, things are improving, judges Stéphanie Villers: “Inflation is slowing down and could disappear in 2024. China is reopening after months of a Zero Covid policy. Contrary to what one might think, the economic news is rather good. There is still a risk of turbulence in 2023 and 2024, but in the long term, we should find a favorable situation. So 2023, annus not so horrible ?