Russia’s war of aggression: why Putin’s tactics have not worked so far

Russia is advancing in Ukraine but is encountering significant resistance. The losses seem relatively high, and people in Russia know little about them – yet.

It has been almost a week since Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the order to invade Ukraine. Since then, his troops have been able to advance far into the neighboring country, but various analysts believe that Russia is making much slower progress than the Kremlin had expected and planned.

This is indicated, among other things, by fighting around an airport near Kiev, where the attackers wanted to build a bridgehead for troop transport, but initially did not succeed.

Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defense has so far not been able to completely eliminate Russia – with fatal consequences: Ukraine claims to have shot down two Russian transport planes in the night from Friday to Saturday alone, in which special forces were allegedly brought inland. According to the AP news agency, US sources confirmed this information, but so far there are no pictures or videos as evidence.

There also seemed to be problems in supplying the advancing troops. Videos show burnt-out Russian military transports that were supposed to deliver supplies. There are also increasing reports of Russian tanks stranded without fuel.

Ukraine claims its forces have killed 3,500 Russian soldiers and captured 200 so far. In addition, 14 aircraft, eight helicopters, 102 tanks and more than 530 other military vehicles were destroyed. Numbers that cannot be verified.

Various videos showing Russian soldiers show that Ukraine actually took prisoners. The Russian prisoners explain in it that they were forced to fight against the Ukrainians. One even claims he is ready to fight Russia now. It is doubtful whether the prisoners made these statements voluntarily.

Reality check propaganda

But there is growing evidence that the defenders’ morale is significantly higher than that of the attackers. As Ukraine fights as David against Goliath Russia and the population pulls together, the Russian attackers are confronted with a reality that doesn’t fit with the Kremlin’s propaganda.

Instead of being greeted by a jubilant populace eager to be liberated from a supposed “Nazi regime,” the invaders find a well-prepared army and a populace willing to fight. Even without weapons, Ukrainians confront Russian tanks.

In addition to the regular soldiers, tens of thousands of Ukrainians are now armed, organizing militias and vigilante groups to secure their villages and towns, as witnesses say tagesschau.de to report.

The Russian attacks on the major cities of Ukraine and the reports of civilian casualties probably increase the motivation to defend oneself against the invaders – by all means. While the Russian attackers have little to gain, the Ukrainians have everything to lose.

Sanctions, weapons, cyber attacks

In addition to the military problems, Russia is also under extreme pressure on other levels. Various NATO countries have announced that they will supply arms to Ukraine, despite Putin’s indirect threat of nuclear war. In addition, the sanctions are to be tightened.

Hackers from the Anonymous movement have also declared war on the Russian government – and paralyzed numerous government sites. A shame for the Kremlin.

In addition, there are demonstrations in many countries and in Russia itself, as well as open opposition from artists who speak out against the Kremlin’s war policy.

Russia is also being hit with boycott calls and exclusions in sports and culture – and Russian athletes are also opposed to the authoritarian leadership in Moscow.

Parallel world in Russian state media

The Russian state media paints a completely distorted picture of the events that has less and less in common with reality: there is no mention of the war, there are no reports of Russian casualties, and allegedly there is no fighting in Kiev at all, only in the Donbass.

Many Russians are still convinced that no Russians were killed. A ticking time bomb until the edifice of lies of the government and the state media collapses. Although Putin controls his propaganda stations as weapons in the information war, total control of information is hardly possible in the age of social media.

So it’s only a matter of time before videos of dead Russian soldiers, destroyed military columns and prisoners being paraded reach more people in Russia. Then the mood could quickly turn against the war.

Where does the misjudgment come from?

Putin is considered a good tactician – and the preparations for the war of aggression actually went as scripted. Putin systematically escalated the situation, repeatedly lied to the world public, presented Western politicians, created pretexts for an attack – and then struck.

The ex-KGB spy has no scruples – this applies both to his enemies abroad and to contradictions within his own ranks. He publicly humiliated a secret service chief this week. But perhaps the president has surrounded himself too much with yes-men; but if there is no longer any contradiction, no constructive dispute, if different perspectives are no longer taken into account, then misjudgments by one individual are simply implemented. In this case by Putin. And he seems to have completely misjudged the mood and willingness to fight in Ukraine.

Further escalation?

So far, Ukraine has at least been able to slow down the Russian advance. But what are the consequences of Russia’s hitherto ineffective strategy? Putin may intensify the attacks even more ruthlessly. For example, Russia could resort to extensive airstrikes in order to limit its own losses.

Videos also show military transports in Belarus heading west, to the border area with Poland. Putin had already threatened that anyone who stood in his way would face unprecedented consequences. The pressure on the Russian president is growing – but it is unlikely that he will back down. Rather, he relies on a further escalation.

With information and assessments by Demian von Osten, ARD Studio Moscow