Russia’s attack on Ukraine: Europe has a new enemy

Russia invades Ukraine and Europeans are stunned. Europe is now moving closer together and readjusting its course towards Moscow. Further sanctions are also being considered.

Some speak of a shock in Brussels, others of a development that should actually have been foreseen in the past few weeks: at the latest after the USA and American secret services apparently had reliable information that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his army had actually carried out a raid Ukraine is planning that he will not withdraw his troops from the border areas there, as he has publicly claimed several times, but – on the contrary – strengthen them.

Negotiate and threaten – without success

But the EU had hoped to the very end that this would not happen, had relied on negotiations and the threat of sanctions and initiated the first sanctions steps.

Now you know: That was well intentioned, but without success. Ever since Putin officially recognized the so-called People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent from Ukraine and announced the deployment of what he called “peacekeeping troops” from Russia there, it has become clear that Europe is on the verge of a new war. 77 years after the end of the German Nazi dictatorship.

There were harbingers

It is true that there were fears in the European Union that Russia would lay claim to these areas. Because they emerged as pro-Russian areas in 2014 as a result of the bloody events on the Maidan in Kiev. At that time, the pro-Russian government had not signed an association agreement with the EU there. Ruler Yanukovych was overthrown and fled to Russia. A power vacuum emerged in Ukraine, which Putin used to annex Crimea.

Many in Brussels see this unclear relationship between Ukraine and the EU, as well as the geographical location as a sort of buffer state between politically united Europe and Russia, as the actual cause of the current war.

You knew that something was threatening to slip away and yet you couldn’t really influence it. A few days before the fighting broke out, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell formulated in the European Parliament what had actually been seen coming for a long time: a de facto Russian integration of eastern Ukraine.

Vulnerability of the EU on the eastern flank

That is why there are accusations against Brussels, especially from eastern EU countries. Russia was given a free hand for too long, and nothing was done to counter Putin. They are dark memories of the Soviet occupation. Estonia’s head of government, Kaja Kalla, for example, had called for support in – literally – for all aspects of Ukraine, including arms deliveries. In the Baltic or in Poland, people fear their own vulnerability.

But it is also a vulnerability of the entire EU on its eastern flank. People in Europe’s capitals are aware of this, are moving closer together and even the federal government is changing course. With his statement that the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline will be put on hold for an indefinite period of time, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is demonstrating a previously unknown approach to Russia. This is being noticed attentively in Brussels: the basic principles of international politics are being readjusted here.

EU countries “on one line”

In response to the Russian attack, the EU launched the largest package of sanctions ever put together in Brussels. It should hit Russia and the Russian economy to the core. Russia’s banks are practically cut off from doing business with the EU, says Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and his French colleague Bruno Le Maire emphasizes how much all 27 member states are on the same page here. Poland and Hungary too: the years-long dispute over their rule of law, their judicial system, basic democratic rights, which they are having with Brussels – suddenly, in view of the war, it seems like an annoying trifle.

But what if Switzerland and Great Britain don’t join?

EU investors are no longer allowed to provide credit institutions from Russia with loans. In addition, there are export bans and export controls for high-tech products, which, according to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, could jeopardize the operation of entire aircraft fleets in Russia. And: Russian oligarchs, who have deposited parts of their billion-dollar assets in Europe, should be denied access to them.

It is, of all people, the head of government of the smallest and very wealthy member state, Luxembourg, who points out that this is right and important – if, however, Switzerland or Great Britain, as non-EU states, do not participate at this point and Russian elites in London or on If Lake Geneva continues to grant access to their accounts, this step could fizzle out.

SWIFT exclusion is controversial

The Baltic governments therefore find the sanctions that have been decided on half-hearted. They are pushing for more and want Russia to be excluded from the international payment system SWIFT. It would cut almost all payment flows to and from Russia. But such a step could also be felt drastically by the people of the EU. In such a case, the German government fears that gas deliveries from Russia could no longer be billed and that Putin might simply turn off the gas tap. A concern that is also shared in other EU countries. However, not in all.

Consequence: Rising energy prices

Cutting off Russia from SWIFT would have serious consequences, but it is manageable, according to some economists. Even those in Germany – such as Veronika Grimm from the Advisory Council or Michael Hüther from the Institute of German Economics.

However, this will have a price: Above all, energy costs will continue to rise. The EU Commission says that you have to accept that if you stand up for peace and democracy. This is how Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice President of the EU Commission from the Baltic state of Latvia, puts it. From a Brussels perspective, it is therefore clear: SWIFT is what could be the next escalation step against Russia.

Think about nuclear deterrence

And while this is being intensively discussed politically, NATO is massing troops, aircraft and weapons in Eastern Europe – on an unprecedented scale and with the massive participation of the USA. It is the Berlin political scientist Herfried Münkler from the Humboldt University who thinks that Europe must now rethink something: about Russia’s own nuclear deterrent potential.

Suddenly, many people think they are back in the East-West conflict that they thought to be over. It’s a turning point. Back then it was the Cold War. Now there is a new war in Europe. It costs lives: in Ukraine and in Russia.