Russian war of aggression
Controversial mobilization: Kiev wants to solve the shortage of soldiers
Ukrainian soldiers practice on a tank during military training. photo
© Efrem Lukatsky/AP/dpa
Moscow is betting that Ukraine will run out of personnel to fight. For Kiev, the search for more soldiers is a sensitive undertaking. What is Zelensky’s plan?
Mobilizing new soldiers to fight the Russian invasion poses a major problem for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “The question of mobilization is a very sensitive one,” Zelensky said on Tuesday Kyiv.
For months now, the commanders of his armed forces, which are equipped with Western weapons, have been demanding more personnel for front-line operations. There is talk of a need for 450,000 to 500,000 additional soldiers. But in addition to the costs, which, according to Zelensky, are around 500 billion hryvnia (12.2 billion euros) and still have to be raised, there is also a motivation problem.
Escape and bribes
Thousands of men try to avoid military service by fleeing abroad. Controls at the borders are strict, with officials searching cars and tearing up panels on trains. Men are repeatedly picked up at the green border. There are also many known cases in which conscripts at muster offices use bribes to buy their way out of service.
In the third year of the war, Zelensky not only has to worry about the crumbling financial support from his Western allies – despite the dwindling reserves there, he is urgently asking for weapons and ammunition. Above all, the military leadership expects him to solve the personnel problem. There are many deaths and injuries every day and thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are taken prisoner.
Kremlin offers high pay
Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin, who has been waging a war of aggression against Ukraine since February 24, 2022, has long been betting that his neighbor will eventually run out of fighters. The Russian president has not only increased the number of soldiers, but is also attracting thousands of volunteers to the front, especially with comparatively high pay. And Putin says that the initiative in the war once again lies with the Russian soldiers, while the Ukrainians are on the defensive.
The Russian troops suffered several defeats, especially in the first year of the war. But they still occupy almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory. Of the more than 800,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the armed forces, around 300,000 are said to be deployed directly on the almost 1,000 kilometer long front.
Men should go to muster
The desperate search for new soldiers becomes visible in markets, shopping centers, restaurants, fitness studios and spas. Military soldiers, some heavily armed, often arrive and try to take men with them for mustering. Zelensky did say this year at the EU in Brussels: “We cannot, like Russia, chase someone into war with clubs.” But videos were already doing the rounds showing how men unwilling to go to war were beaten up and taken by force to the district military replacement offices.
After reports of miserable draft numbers, systematic buyouts from military service and corrupt heads of the draft offices, Zelensky fired all regional heads of the district military replacement offices in August. But the mobilization numbers collapsed even further.
Military Intelligence Chief: They’re running away
According to the media, especially in large cities, call-up plans are now only being fulfilled by single-digit percentages. Although men of military age between 18 and 60 are not allowed to leave the country, the number of refugees is still increasing. How many manage to escape can only be estimated. But according to Eurostat, over 700,000 Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 64 were registered as refugees in the EU states alone in October.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has a statement. According to him, the majority of people like to shout: “I am Ukrainian – Ukraine above all.” But essentially they don’t feel like citizens of Ukraine and therefore don’t see a “sacred duty” to defend it. “Everyone is keeping their fingers crossed for Ukraine, but they are running away,” said the secret service agent at a recent discussion event. The gaps at the front can no longer be closed with volunteers. Therefore, the country cannot avoid forced mobilization.
Unpopular solutions
Given the difficult situation, the government is forced to take unpopular steps. To make it easier to access more than 400,000 young men, the reservist age is to be reduced from 27 to 25 years. In addition, the criteria for fitness for service have been weakened – men with only one arm or an amputated lower leg are therefore considered conditionally fit for service. The drafting of women is also under discussion. However, Zelenskyj has so far rejected any change in the law. More than five percent or around 43,000 members of the armed forces are women, over 5,000 of whom are directly at the front.
There is no quick solution in sight. Former Foreign Minister Vadym Prystajko recently brought up the idea of deploying Western soldiers – for example from Great Britain. This is one way in the event of a “catastrophic development of the war”. So far there have only been voluntary foreigners in the so-called International Legion, but it hardly plays a role anymore.
The use of foreign soldiers has so far been taboo among Western allies. But Ukraine is always proud that the West has also thrown other taboos overboard with its tanks, missiles and announced aircraft deliveries. There is great hope for help.