Russian troops: Selenskyj expects further mobilizations

Although the Kremlin has announced the end of partial mobilization, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expects renewed convocations. Russia’s troops are poorly equipped and trained. An expert sees Russia’s offensive ability broken.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expects further partial mobilization of reservists in Russia for the war against his country. “We are preparing for it,” said Zelenskyj in a video message distributed on Friday evening. He was reacting to the end of the call-up of 300,000 reservists for the war against Ukraine announced by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Moscow.

Partial mobilization is controversial in Russian society – also because it means that the war, which is not allowed to be called that in Russia, became tangible in many families for the first time. Many conscripts have now been transferred back to Russia in coffins.

Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled in fear

Hundreds of thousands of Russians have left the country for fear of being drafted into military service. In Russia, many jobs are orphaned because people are either serving in the war or fleeing.

The fact that the Russian leadership now announced the end of mobilization was seen as an attempt to lure men back into the country. However, experts warn against returning to Russia because the end of partial mobilization still has to be sealed by a presidential decree. So far this has not happened.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stressed that the Ukrainian resistance is so strong that Russia will be forced to order new mobilizations. The Russian troops are so poorly trained and equipped that the country will soon have to mobilize even more people, said Zelenskyj, referring to the losses among Russian soldiers.

Military expert sees Russia facing major problems

According to military expert Niklas Masuhr, a shortage of weapons and desolate troop morale will pose major problems for Russia in the coming winter. “Even without Ukrainian influence, the winter will be a major challenge for the Russians,” the researcher from the respected Center for Security Studies at the ETH University in Zurich told the dpa news agency.

“For the Russians it’s still a question of digging in over the winter. The troops are in such bad condition that it’s not clear whether they can do it.” Supplying the troops at the front becomes more difficult in winter, which further depresses the morale of the soldiers, who are already on the ground.

“Russia’s offensive ability in Ukraine is broken, further advances are unlikely,” Masuhr continued. “Russia has switched to defensive mode.” At the same time, there are no signs that the recent terror campaign with rocket and drone attacks has intimidated the Ukrainians or that they are running out of momentum.

Russian troops as a “patchwork”

He sees daily reports of mobilized Russian troops refusing to go into battle and of commanders having to force subordinates to the front lines at gunpoint.

There is a lack of cohesion in the associations because the troops have now been thrown together, some with regular soldiers, some with prisoners and other young and old conscripts. “You can defend yourself with such a patchwork quilt, but offensives place higher demands on training and cohesion.”

Research: Rumblings in the Kremlin’s power apparatus

The fact that Ukrainian advances have come to a standstill can be explained by the attack strategy, said Masuhr. The Ukrainians attacked first where worn-out Russian troops had large areas to defend. “The closer you get to the more strongly defended Russian front sections, the slower the pace becomes in order to wear the enemy down,” said Masuhr.

He does not consider a Ukrainian offensive in the Cherson region in the south-east to be hopeless. A success there is politically and militarily important because it would separate the Russian troops in the south and east and make new advances in the south impossible.

In addition, the Russians were running out of precision weapons. They lack Western microelectronics for further production, which the government cannot obtain on the black markets in the necessary quantities and at an affordable price. At the same time, Western arms supplies strengthened Ukraine. “The performance curve goes up for the Ukrainians and down for the Russians,” said Masuhr.

According to research by ARD political magazine contrasts and Deutsche Welle, the Kremlin’s power apparatus is also rumbling. According to an informant who claims to have worked for three Russian security agencies, many in the FSB, the domestic secret service, now believe the war is lost.