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Possible military maneuvers
Is Russia withdrawing troops or expanding them? NATO countries plan to strengthen the eastern flank
Russian troops in Crimea return to barracks after maneuvers.
© Handout/Russian Defense Ministry / AFP
Now NATO is also following suit: After Moscow first expanded and then, according to its own statements, reduced its troop presence, the western allies are planning to strengthen their troops in Eastern Europe.
Despite the announced partial withdrawal of Russian troops from the border, the West still considers the situation in Ukraine to be threatening. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he saw no signs of a Russian troop withdrawal. “On the contrary, Russia appears to be expanding its military presence.”
In his own words, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sees no signs that Russia is actually implementing the announced partial withdrawal of its troops from the Ukrainian border. “We see small rotations,” said Zelenskyj in a televised speech. “I wouldn’t call these rotations a withdrawal of Russian troops.” While Moscow declared military exercises in the annexed Crimea over, Ukraine celebrated a day of unity and held its own maneuvers.
“Still as many armed forces”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian also said there were “still as many armed forces” stationed at the border as before. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also reiterated the position of the US government: Despite the announcements made by Russia, no “significant withdrawal” of troops has been identified so far, he said on ABC.
Nevertheless, Stoltenberg also sees “reason for cautious optimism” because Russia seems ready for dialogue. However, his announcement that NATO is examining the deployment of new combat units to the alliance’s eastern flank could cause further tension. According to Stoltenberg, it is about “new battlegroups in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe”. Among other things, the establishment of a new multinational combat unit in Romania is under discussion.
What exactly is planned?
According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, NATO wants to permanently expand its presence on the so-called eastern flank. For this purpose, new multinational combat units are under discussion, so-called battlegroups. After the Baltic States and Poland, they could also be used in south-eastern Europe for the first time.
Where are new units planned?
Plans for Romania, which shares a more than 600-kilometer border with Ukraine, have progressed most concretely. US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron recently promised reinforcements to the NATO partner who joined in 2004. Further transfers to Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia were also discussed, but there is domestic political resistance there due to the relationship with Russia.
What should the aid for Romania look like in concrete terms?
The US wants to send a thousand soldiers currently stationed in Bavaria to Romania. In addition, US F-16 fighter jets were transferred from Germany to a Romanian base a hundred kilometers from the Black Sea. According to Brussels, US forces could be integrated into a new NATO battle group. France has offered to provide command.
Russian troops on the border with Ukraine: These satellite photos make the West nervous
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Is there a risk of an intensified conflict with Russia?
Observers fear this because Russia had warned NATO against stationing new forces in the east – particularly in Romania and Bulgaria. Both countries are bordering the Black Sea, which also includes the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, on the other hand, said that NATO was “not a threat to Russia” and that it was only about protecting eastern member states.
How does Germany rate the plans?
Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) spoke cautiously about the plans on the sidelines of the Council of Ministers. A decision should not be made in the current crisis situation with Russia, “but after an intensive examination,” she demanded.
What happens now?
Once the NATO military leadership under US General Tod Wolters has presented its plans, the 30 member states would have to make a unanimous decision. This is not expected before the alliance summit in Madrid at the end of June.
Scholz with Putin in Moscow: all cards on the (giant) table
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What else is NATO doing?
NATO is also strengthening its so-called eastern flank in other places: Germany has pledged a further 350 soldiers and around 100 military vehicles for the Baltic state of Lithuania in the Ukraine conflict, in addition to around 550 troops already stationed there. Germany has been in command of the NATO battle group in Lithuania for a good five years.
Is this reinforcement permanent?
That’s the question. The US, for example, has announced 1,700 additional soldiers for Poland, where the United States is leading a battle group. Two other such battalions are in Estonia under British command and in Latvia under Canadian command. The units were deployed two years later in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 by NATO decision.