If Russia invades Ukraine, the US and the EU are threatening Moscow with further sanctions. That could also have consequences for Bayern. “Russia’s contribution to Bavaria’s energy supply is of central importance: 36 percent of Bavaria’s oil and gas imports come from Russia,” said the Bavarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (BIHK) on request.
In the case of Bavarian exports, on the other hand, Russia slipped to 17th place. In the first half of 2021, Russia accounted for 2.9 percent of all Bavarian imports, but only 1.6 percent of Bavarian exports. According to the BIHK, Bavaria bought oil and natural gas in Russia in 2020 for 2.84 billion euros. By far the second most important imported goods were metals worth 280 million euros. In the past year, imports from Russia increased by 65 percent by November 2021, mainly due to the rise in energy prices.
Conversely, the Russians in Bavaria mainly buy motor vehicles, vehicle parts and machines. In 2020, Bavarian exports to Russia totaled 2.8 billion euros, and by November 2021 they had increased by almost nine percent. In the past ten years, however, Bavarian-Russian foreign trade has been on a downward slide. In 2012, Bavarian exports were still 4.5 billion euros, imports from Russia around 8.5 billion. Then Russia plunged into an economic crisis as a result of the drop in oil prices and ruble, and since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the fighting in eastern Ukraine, the EU has banned the export of goods that can also be used for military purposes. There are also financial sanctions. Since then, Russia has banned the import of European foods, which also affected Bavarian dairy farmers and companies.
If Russia invades Ukraine, it could face exclusion from the Swift international payment system, an end to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, or sanctions against individual oligarchs or politicians. The latter would not be so important for Bayern. “Russia does not play a major role for the Bavarian economy either as a target country for direct investments or as a source of capital in Bavaria,” said the BIHK.