With all the lively Ukraine diplomacy in Europe’s capitals, at least Kharkiv is not forgotten. Kharkiv is a city of over a million inhabitants, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently speculated that Russia could target it if it invaded. The city is only about 30 kilometers from the Russian border and will therefore be a symbolic place this Friday. At least in Ukraine. President Selensky is coming to Kharkiv, the National Security Council will meet there. Together they want to discuss how to defend the region.
Zelensky has repeatedly warned the United States against scaremongering in view of the Russian deployment in the border region and has tried to convey as much composure as possible. But he’s already prepared for everything. He roughly represents the mood that is also perceptible in the Ukrainian population at the moment: a mixture of everyday routine, nevertheless increased vigilance and sometimes also fear.
Thousands of people took to the streets in Kharkiv last weekend to demonstrate against the threat posed by Russia. Many residents have already packed an emergency kit and are thinking about where they could flee with their families in the event of an emergency. On the phone, however, Elena from Kharkiv, who works in a publishing house and does not want to give her last name, says: “I know some who bought food supplies, but I’m not one of them. And neither are many that I know. I trust the authorities and the leadership.”
Despite all the worries and fears, politicians and society in Ukraine have developed a new self-confidence that things won’t get that bad – or at least that the country is prepared. While Kiev is not happy about Germany’s reluctance to deliver arms, defense expert Mykola Beleskov concludes: “Ukraine now has the best armed forces in 30 years of independence. They are the best prepared and the best trained.” Just eight years ago, when Russia annexed Crimea and the war in Donbass began, the army existed only on paper, soldiers still had antiquated Soviet-made rifles and fought for uniforms and sensible boots.
President Zelensky is unlikely to survive domestically if he makes too many concessions
Ukraine’s defense budget has tripled in a decade; the United States has sent an estimated $2.5 billion in military aid, Britain has pledged weapons, Turkey has sold drones, and Lithuania has now announced the delivery of anti-missile systems in addition to night vision devices, which “will come in the next few days.” A war with Russia “would be hard for us, very hard,” says Beleskov, “but it wouldn’t be easy for the Russians either.” In any case, Ukraine is currently experiencing a great deal of diplomatic solidarity. She knows that the West is working out prophylactic tough sanctions against Russia should Moscow intervene militarily.
All of this also has an impact on Kiev’s attitude to international talks. Because where there is so much talk of red lines, Ukraine has also drawn some itself. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kiev would never allow the areas in Donbass controlled by the pro-Russian separatists to be given the right to veto “any decision on Ukraine’s strategic development”. Also means: for a possible accession to NATO. The Ukrainian leadership categorically refuses direct talks with the separatist leaders in order not to recognize them in fact, especially since Kiev sees the Russian leadership behind them anyway. And: no compromises when it comes to controlling national borders.
Debates are currently underway in Ukraine, peppered with some suspicion that Western states could also put Kiev under more or less gentle pressure for talks with Moscow. The Minsk Agreement is the key to a possible relaxation. But the details are tricky. Elections would first have to be held there for Donbass to have a permanent special status – but Kiev cannot imagine how the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) would see such voting according to Ukrainian laws, with all parties and without hindrances, as free and fair can testify when Moscow-backed separatists are in charge in the areas.
The room for maneuver in diplomatic talks is very limited, not only because of Russia’s repeated calls for security guarantees, but also because of the situation in Ukraine itself. Domestically, President Zelensky is unlikely to survive if he makes too many concessions. According to polls by the Kiev Sociology Institute KMIS at the end of January, Selensky is supported by just under 24 percent of all Ukrainians – and the trend is falling. His predecessor and rival Petro Poroshenko, head of the opposition party European Solidarity, who is currently having to defend himself in court against the accusation of high treason, comes to almost 21 percent – and the trend is rising.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian population is trying to pragmatically fight its way through the period of tension. The demand for defense and medical courses in the capital Kiev is immense, the newspaper reports Kyiv Post has published excerpts from a 14-page booklet recommending a bag with water for three days, pre-cooked food, medicinal alcohol, needles, compass, matches and other things just to be safe – and also listing which neighboring countries on which paths are accessible.
“Is it suddenly war?” the Unian news agency headlined a lengthy report. However, he brought the unspectacular realization that, despite the sense of threat, the supermarket shelves are by no means empty. And that there is no reason for it. The experts quoted agree that it is advisable to remain calm. Everyone believes that diplomacy can be successful. The country produces enough, and there was a record grain harvest last year.