chronology
Status: 02/22/2022 1:35 p.m
Russian President Putin has recognized the separatist areas in eastern Ukraine as independent and ordered troops to be deployed. How could it come to this? A look back at days between dialogue and threats.
For weeks, international diplomacy tried to defuse the situation between Russia and Ukraine. Now it turns out that the efforts were unsuccessful. Already last week there were signs of an escalation of the conflict. A review.
Scholz in Kiev – US relocates embassy
During his visit to Kiev on Monday last week, Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized that the aim was to defuse the conflict. “De-escalation is the task of the hour.” He is ready for a serious dialogue with Russia. However, the territorial integrity of Ukraine is non-negotiable for Germany.
On the same day, the US decided to move the operations of its embassy in Ukraine from the capital, Kiev, to Lviv, near the Polish border. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it was a precautionary measure because of the tense situation. The “precautions” were for the safety of diplomats and would in no way undermine US support for Ukraine.
hope for relaxation
The next day Scholz traveled to Moscow. And even before the meeting with Russia’s Vladimir President Putin, a de-escalation seemed within reach. Russia reported the withdrawal of troops from the south and west of the country. Soldiers were to return to their permanent bases after maneuvers.
However, this step was less conciliatory: the Russian parliament spoke out in favor of official recognition of the independence of the separatist areas in eastern Ukraine. The self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and People’s Republic of Luhansk should be recognized as “sovereign and independent states”.
In the evening, Putin and Scholz showed themselves ready for dialogue, but without any agreement on central points of conflict. The United States also continued to warn of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
… and disillusionment
Disillusionment set in the very next day. US President Joe Biden and Chancellor Scholz agreed that there was no significant withdrawal of Russian troops. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also saw no signs of relaxation. The alliance announced on Wednesday that it would consider moving new combat units to Eastern Europe.
The report by the Russian Ministry of Defense that further troops are now being withdrawn from Crimea did not contribute to any significant improvement in the situation. Biden renewed his warning to Putin. A Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent. Russia, however, again rejected the allegations.
NATO warns of pretext for attack
NATO, meanwhile, has been monitoring reports of alleged attacks against pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. “We are concerned that Russia is trying to stage a pretext for an armed attack on Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said. It is known that there are many Russian secret service agents in Ukraine who are also active in Donbass. And we have seen attempts to use “false flag operations” to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine.
East Ukrainian separatists accused Ukrainian government troops of violating the current ceasefire. Ukraine, on the other hand, reported shelling of villages by pro-Russian separatists.
Security Conference without Russia
Under these auspices, the Munich Security Conference started on Friday – for the first time in 30 years without the participation of an official Russian delegation. At the beginning, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock once again called for an end to the threat to Ukraine from Russia. In the event of an escalation, all options are on the table to impose sanctions. However, Baerbock also spoke of a “glimmer of hope” with regard to an announced troop withdrawal.
The US government also warned that Moscow could use a pretext to publicly justify an attack on Ukraine.
A “worsening of the situation”
Meanwhile, fighting in eastern Ukraine continued to escalate. On Friday, separatists called on civilians in areas they control to go to Russia. In the Donetsk region alone, 700,000 people are said to be brought to safety. Putin spoke of a “deterioration of the situation” in the region.
Biden also sharpened the tone. He is convinced that Russia will attack Ukraine in the coming days. However, Biden again emphasized that it was not too late to find a diplomatic solution. The German federal government demanded a signal of de-escalation from Russia.
“General mobilization” and missile tests
The conflict continued to escalate on Saturday. While the OSCE spoke of a “dramatic increase” in violations of the ceasefire, the heads of the “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk called for “general mobilization” on Saturday.
Russia launched a maneuver using ballistic missiles and Chancellor Scholz warned at the security conference in view of a “dramatic situation”: “War is threatening again in Europe.” He also referred again to the high costs for Russia in the event of an attack – “politically, economically and geostrategically”.
The federal government called on all Germans “urgently to leave the country now. A military conflict is possible at any time,” wrote the Federal Foreign Office in its security instructions for Ukraine.
Hardly any “room for diplomacy” left
NATO’s warnings became clearer: “All signs point to Russia planning a full-scale attack on Ukraine,” Secretary General of the military alliance Jens Stoltenberg said on Saturday daily topics. But there is still room for diplomacy.
This room got very small on Monday. While there was still hope in the morning for a mediating talk between Putin and Biden, the situation changed drastically in the evening. Putin recognized the independence of the breakaway “People’s Republics” from Ukraine. The Kremlin chief also ordered Russian soldiers to be sent to eastern Ukraine.