Russian President Vladimir Putin has traveled abroad for the first time since the war of aggression against Ukraine began. A meeting with President Emomali Rahmon, one of Russia’s closest allies, was scheduled for Tuesday in central Asian Tajikistan. Rahmon was the only foreign state guest at the Victory Parade in Moscow last year, but he didn’t come this year either.
Both countries belong to the military alliance OVKS (Collective Security Treaty Organisation). Russia maintains three military bases in the country and has about 7,000 soldiers stationed there. Tajikistan is also economically dependent on Russia because of energy imports and the more than one million Tajik migrant workers. Conversely, Russia’s economic problems, such as the decline in real wages, also have an impact on the many guest workers.
Putin said he wanted to get an idea of the situation in Central Asia and spoke of a “common responsibility” for stability in the region. Tajikistan is a neighboring country to Afghanistan, and with the return of the Taliban to power, Russia and Tajikistan fear that the Islamists could also gain influence in the former Soviet republic. In Dushanbe, Putin said he wanted to improve relations with the Taliban: “We are doing everything to normalize the situation in the country and are trying to build relationships with the political forces that control the situation.”
Moscow has increased its military presence in Tajikistan, but at the same time is concerned whether the US will compete for influence in Central Asia. Two weeks ago, American General Michael Kurilla was in Tajikistan and announced that he would surrender to Tajikistan a number of planes and helicopters left behind by Western-trained Afghan units fleeing the Taliban. “Our hope is to turn them over to the Tajik government,” said the head of US Central Command. In any case, the Taliban would not get them.
Speculation about changes in the army leadership
For the Russian Central Asia expert Alexander Knyazev, this is evidence of the “noticeably increased activity” of the USA in Tajikistan. For Kremlin chief Putin, it is therefore also a matter of making sure that Tajikistan remains a reliable partner. Most recently, the largest and richest country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, made it clear that it does not support Russia’s view of the Ukraine war and is not willing to recognize the eastern Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as their own states.
Meanwhile, there is speculation that after only two months, Putin has already replaced the Russian supreme commander for Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War reported that General Gennady Shidko “probably” replaced Alexander Dvornikov. The institute concluded that Zhidko sat next to him during a visit by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Ukraine last weekend, while Dvornikov did not. So far, there has been no official confirmation from Russia.
Dvornikov had only been given supreme command of Russia’s troops in Ukraine in April. He was known for his brutal operations in Syria. However, Schidko was also significantly involved in Russia’s operations in Syria.
It is difficult to say whether the unconfirmed changes in the Russian military leadership are an expression of Putin’s dissatisfaction with the course of the war. The British Ministry of Defense said in a situation report on Tuesday that the Russian armed forces were “increasingly exhausted”. In the battle for Sievjerodonetsk, the main elements of six different Russian armies were used.