Russia continues to expand its influence in Libya

Russia continues to expand its influence in Libya. According to information from the Foreign Office WDR and NDR worried. There are said to be plans for a Russian naval base.

Since the fall of dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi in the summer of 2011, Libya has not calmed down. The North African state is suffering from political instability, recurring fights between rival militias, economic problems and the consequences of the devastating floods in autumn 2023. Russia appears to be increasingly using this situation for its own purposes.

Its leadership is obviously continuing to expand its influence in Libya, as can be seen from an internal letter from the Foreign Office at the end of March WDR and NDR is present. It says that the federal government is concerned about the political stalemate in Libya and the “developing RUS presence” and that the country is apparently increasingly being used “as a transport hub”.

It goes on to say that the European External Action Service (EEAS), the EU’s diplomatic service, recently confirmed an “increase in the delivery of heavy material and possible plans for a RUS naval base”.

Rival factions

A Russian naval base on the Libyan coast would be a strategically significant step for Russia: In addition to the port in Tartus, Syria, this would be the second military base for Russian warships on the Mediterranean – directly on the geographical southern border of the NATO member states, in a country that is also due to migration routes is of considerable importance for Europe.

Different factions have ruled Libya since the fall of the Gaddafi regime: In the west of the country, the Government of National Unity, a provisional government headed by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbaiba, runs the country from Tripoli. It is internationally recognized and was built with the help of the United Nations. It is supported by Turkey, among others.

In eastern Libya, on the other hand, there is a rival government under Prime Minister Osama Hammad, the government of national stability, which is based in Tobruk. It is supported by the so-called Libyan National Army of General Khalifa Haftar, a once high-ranking military officer under al-Gaddafi who later fell from grace, temporarily lived in the USA and even received American citizenship.

Expand presence in Libya

General Haftar was a key figure in the 2011 uprising against Gaddafi and the subsequent Libyan civil war. The former US ally is now supported by Russia. In recent years, Haftar has traveled to Moscow several times for talks, most recently meeting Vladimir Putin in October 2023.

Western security authorities assume that Russia has assured the Libyan general of further military support and would like to expand its presence in Libya in return. Access to raw materials such as gold and oil deposits should also play a role. According to the document from the Foreign Office, oil smuggling from Libya alone is said to be worth around 12.8 billion US dollars annually.

The Russian mercenary group Wagner has been active in Libya for several years. Their presence will apparently be expanded further this spring. Recently, General Haftar, with the support of Russian military advisors, set up a new military base in Sirte, in central Libya. Haftar’s units now control further parts of the south of the country.

Hub for Africa

The Russian military can already use several airfields in Libya that are under the control of Haftar’s combat units. Moscow should use Libya as a hub not only for the transport of raw materials, but also weapons that are brought to Sudan, for example, to support militias there.

After the death of the former Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, Russian General Andrei Averyanov took command of the mercenary force, which now operates in Libya and other African states under the name “Expeditionary Corps” or “Africa Corps”. Last year Averyanov traveled to several African countries, including Libya. The meetings with the local rulers are said to have been about further military cooperation and agreements.

Averyanov is a long-time member of the Russian military intelligence service GRU. He is said to have led the notorious Unit 29155, which is suspected of carrying out assassinations and acts of sabotage outside of Russia. Opposition media report that members of GRU Unit 29,155 are said to have carried out explosive attacks on an ammunition depot in the Czech Republic, as well as attacks on a Bulgarian arms dealer and a poison attack on former Russian spy Sergej Skripal in Great Britain.

According to research by the media “The Insider”, “CBS News” and “Spiegel”, these Russian military spies are also said to be responsible for worldwide acoustic attacks on US government officials and their family members, the presumed consequences of which are discussed under the heading “Havana Syndrome”.

USA wants to return

In order to counter Russian influence in Libya, the US State Department is currently planning a return to the country. In July 2014, the US Embassy in Tripoli was closed after then-US Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans were killed in an Islamist terrorist attack on the American consulate in Benghazi in eastern Libya.

For the 2025 fiscal year, the US State Department has now requested $12.7 million for the reopening of an embassy in Libya and for logistical support services. The statement, recently quoted by CNN, said: “Given Russia’s increasing influence on NATO’s southern flank, the US presence in Libya is critical to protecting our long-term security interests.”

In response to a detailed request, the Russian embassy in Berlin said that it generally does not comment on “speculation and rumors in the press.”