One against all, and all against one. Nearly seven months before the first ballot in Iowa, the Republican primary is set to be as bottled up as in 2016. But this time, the roles are reversed: Donald Trump, who arrived as an outsider eight years ago, is today the big favourite, with the unwavering support of nearly half of the Conservative electorate.
Opposite, Ron DeSantis had briefly hounded the former president after the midterms of November 2022, but the governor of Florida is struggling to engage and finds himself off the hook today by nearly 30 points. Behind, everything remains open. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, African-American Senator Tim Scott and ex-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie are all hoping to score points in the first TV debate, the August 23. And, perhaps, take advantage of Donald Trump’s legal troubles.
• Donald Trump, the big favorite (52.1% of voting intentions*)
His strengths : He seems untouchable in the polls, with a Republican base won over to his cause. With his TV experience, he plays the media like no one, and proved it again during a debate on CNN in May, where the moderator remained powerless.
Its weaknesses: He pushes independent voters into the “suburbs” of the most contested states, and he is surrounded by court cases. Doubly criminally charged, Donald Trump will be tried in March 2024 in the Stormy Daniels case, but risks much greater in that of the secret documents of the White House. He could also be troubled by the Georgia judiciary for his actions after the 2020 presidential election, as well as Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s dual investigation into the Capitol storming and Trump’s campaign efforts to overturn the U.S. verdict. ballot boxes. What, potentially, to offer ammunition to his opponents, even if a possible prison sentence would not make him ineligible – only Congress has this power – nor necessarily less popular in the Republican electorate.
• Ron DeSantis, the young challenger (21.5%)
His strengths : The governor of Florida seems for the moment to embody the only alternative to Donald Trump. He was re-elected in a chair, in particular by outperforming in the Latino electorate, while many conspiratorial MAGA candidates were rejected during the midterms. DeSantis is the preferred candidate of the Republican establishment, which considers Trump unmanageable. At 44, against 77 for Trump, he can present himself as the candidate of the future.
Its weaknesses: He is sorely lacking in charisma and sometimes “bugs” like a robot. His campaign launch has been hampered on Twitter, and if he tries to attack Donald Trump on his right, he sometimes seems to go too far, such as in his war against Disney, widely criticized by Republicans.
• Mike Pence, revenge (5.8%)
His strengths : No need to introduce him, the former vice-president is known to all voters. By declaring himself a candidate, Pence frontally attacked the ex-president on the assault on Capitol Hill, repeating that his former boss had “endangered” him and his family. If Donald Trump is indicted on this case, Mike Pence is the candidate who could benefit the most.
Its weaknesses: By refusing to block the certification of the 2020 election, Pence alienated the Trumpist base, which explains his low score in the polls. And if his religious orthodoxy on abortion and LGBTQ+ issues are an advantage for the primary, it could handicap him during the election in the “swing states”, this half-dozen states with a varied electorate where everything is played.
• Nikki Haley, the pro-Ukraine diplomat (3.6%)
His strengths : At 51, the former governor of South Carolina has a well-stocked CV, especially internationally thanks to her two years as ambassador to the United Nations under the Trump administration. Daughter of Indian immigrants, she is one of the few Republicans to forcefully defend support for Ukraine. She enjoys a decent popularity rating and does not repel centrist independents, an important quality against Biden.
Its weaknesses: By trying not to rob anyone, she sometimes gives the impression of navigating on sight, especially in the face of Donald Trump. She alternately criticized and then supported, before distancing herself after the Capitol, ensuring despite everything that he was her “friend”.
• Tim Scott, the optimistic senator (3.5%)
His strengths : The only African-American senator on the Republican side, Tim Scott displays unfailing optimism, repeating to anyone willing to listen that America is “not a racist country” but a “land of opportunity”, which has allowed his family to go “from cotton to Congress” in three generations. He has no enemies, and no one seems willing to risk attacking him.
Its weaknesses: Very popular in South Carolina, it suffers from a lack of “name recognition” at the national level. His efforts to broker a compromise with the Democratic camp to reform the police went unheeded.
• Chris Christie, the bulldog (2.5%)
His strengths : This former prosecutor can hurt in TV debates. In 2016, he had destroyed the campaign of Marco Rubio as in an episode of the series The West Wing, taking down the Florida senator’s pre-formatted “25-word” responses. Christie now seems to have Donald Trump in his sights.
• Its weaknesses: The former governor of New Jersey drags the pan of “bridgegate”, a scandal in which he was suspected of having caused monster traffic jams by closing the lanes of a bridge to rot an enemy mayor. His subordinates had finally played the fuse, but his reputation had taken a hit. Christie also tends to follow the direction of the wind: he joined Donald Trump in 2016, becoming one of his advisers, before denouncing his actions during the 2020 presidential election.
• Vivek Ramaswamy, the anti-woke entrepreneur (2.1%)
His strengths : He is 37 years old, he made his fortune in the pharmaceutical industry and is worth, according to Forbes, more than 600 million dollars. In a saturated primary, he managed to stand out with extreme proposals such as abolishing teacher unions, raising the voting age to 25 and banning positive discrimination.
Its weaknesses: Like Andrew Yang on the Democratic side in 2020, Vivek Ramaswamy knows he has no chance of winning the nomination. By attacking DeSantis, he seems more like a candidate for a post in a Trump administration than for president.
• Asa Hutchinson, former “Never Trumper” governor (<1%)
His strengths : The former Arkansas governor was one of the first to jump in with Donald Trump, saying the country needed a “new direction”, with a leader “who brings out the best in America and not the worst”.
Its weaknesses: Already off the hook, he is one of those candidates struggling to qualify for the first debate.
• Larry Elder, the provocative host (<1%)
His strengths : A conservative radio/TV host for nearly 30 years in the Los Angeles area, Elder came out well ahead of some 40 candidates hoping to unseat California Governor Gavin Newsom in the 2021 recall. failed, Larry Elder showed a Trumpian knack for capturing attention.
Its weaknesses: Much less known in the rest of the country, it is currently struggling to exist and could fail to qualify for the first TV debate if it does not cross the 40,000 donor mark.
• Doug Burgum, the billionaire governor (<1%)
His strengths : He sold his company Great Plains Software to Microsoft in 2001 for over $1 billion. This entrepreneur successfully converted into politics, helping to modernize North Dakota. He is now one of the most popular American governors.
Its weaknesses: With a late entry into this campaign, he is starting very far and has only eight weeks to reach the threshold of 40,000 donors before the debate on August 23.
• The other candidates
The Mayor of Miami Francis Suarez wants to overshadow Ron DeSantis, but his answer “What is a Uyghur? “, in the middle of an interview this week, is not very serious. The former CIA agent and representative of Texas Will Hurd tries to embody a centrist voice, especially on immigration, but it will be difficult to be heard in a very right-wing primary.
• Potential candidates
Donald Trump’s Nemesis Liz Cheney, was defeated in the Republican primary in Wyoming last summer, but she leaves the door open to a presidential candidacy, potentially as an independent candidate. Fierce criticism of Donald Trump, the centrist governor of New Hampshire Chris Sununu has so far ruled out showing up. The Governor of Virginia Glenn Youngkin, who beat a Democratic heavyweight, seemed to be waiting for his turn. But according to Politico, Ron DeSantis’ failed start to the campaign could push him to try his luck.
poll average by RealClearPolitics
from Tuesday, June 27, 2023
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