Rockets, bombs and German submarines – that’s how powerful Israel’s nuclear program is

Armament
Rockets, bombs and German submarines: That’s how powerful Israel’s nuclear program is

Officially there are no nuclear weapons in Israel. In fact, the country has a powerful arsenal, thanks in part to German help. It is of no use in the war against Hamas.

Israel’s nuclear program is the proverbial elephant in the room. Everyone knows he’s on the dance floor, but everyone acts as if he doesn’t exist. Israel has long pursued a policy of “nuclear ambiguity” – that is, it has never directly confirmed or denied the existence of a nuclear arsenal. And the states that helped with nuclear armament observe the same taboo. That’s why there are many assumptions about it, but no confirmed findings. This would also address another problem: “All” does not mean “everyone,” meaning Israel and its supporters from the West.

Secret – but exists

Since this nuclear program does not officially exist, there is officially no operational doctrine, no chain of command for possible deployment, no activation codes and no black suitcase. In fact, everything will exist, because otherwise nuclear weapons would not be usable. It’s just not talked about. For Israel, too, the use of nuclear weapons is no small matter. It is reserved for the existential threats to the country. Once it was almost time: In the first phase of the Yom Kippur War, it looked as if Egyptian and Syrian troops would defeat Israeli forces in the Golan Heights and Sinai and then be able to advance unhindered into the heartland. Prime Minister Golda Meir then had 13 nuclear warheads made ready for use in Israel’s Jericho missiles and fighter jets. The explosive power of 20 kilotons suggests that these tactical nuclear weapons are intended to be used against enemy tank concentrations.

First nuclear weapons before 1967

Construction of the Negev Nuclear Research Center began at the end of the 1950s; the actual purpose of the facility was to produce weapons-grade uranium. It is assumed that Israel already had its first operational nuclear weapons before the Six-Day War in 1967. Many details of the program were leaked to the press in 1986 by a former technician. According to this, Israel already had material for 20 hydrogen bombs and 200 uranium bombs. The informant Mordechai Vanunu was then kidnapped to Israel and convicted there.

Massive help from the West

On the one hand, the nuclear armament is considered secret, but on the other hand, it was carried out from the start with the knowledge and active help of Western governments. Be it the procurement of materials and technology or simply money. Germany also helped with nuclear armament. A cover for the Negev reactor was the construction of a large seawater desalination plant. It was largely financed by Germany and was never built. The money probably went directly into building the reactor.

A more recent example of German nuclear weapons assistance is the Dolphin-class submarines. They were developed and built in Germany according to Israeli specifications. The cost of the submarines was largely covered by the German taxpayer. Unlike the German submarine series, the Dolphin class is designed to launch cruise missiles of the Israeli Popeye Turbo type (Submarine Launched Cruise Missiles – SLCM). Their range is over 1500 kilometers. It is believed that the SLCMs are equipped with a nuclear warhead with an explosive yield of 200 kilotons, which has not been officially confirmed. This is also where the special significance of the Dolphin class lies.

Among other missions, they can deliver a nuclear second strike in the event that an adversary manages to destroy Israel’s nuclear arsenal on land with a surprise and overwhelming first strike. Germany is not alone in providing help; numerous Western states have massively supported Israel’s nuclear armament. Israel’s unilateral nuclear armament was made possible by the dominance of the West at the time and also because the USSR had no interest in arming other states in the “powder keg” of the Middle East with nuclear weapons.

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Speculation about the size of the arsenal

The exact size of Israel’s arsenal is unknown. Estimates are based on further estimates of the amount of weapons-grade material that Israel could have produced, and are correspondingly uncertain. They range from 80 to over 400 warheads. Israel is believed to have a full range of nuclear weaponry from briefcase mini-nukes to hydrogen bombs. F-15 and F-16 jets can transport nuclear weapons over long distances, and the Jericho-3 missiles are said to have a range of 4,800 to 6,500 kilometers. There are also the Dolphin class boats with their cruise missiles. Overall, this is a gigantic arsenal, especially since Israel’s neighbors do not have nuclear weapons and Israel and its allies are doing everything they can to maintain this status.

Only regional nuclear power

If a potential enemy of Israel had nuclear weapons, Israel would be caught in a nuclear standoff like East and West in the Cold War. Due to the small size of the country, a few hits in the centers would be enough to de facto wipe out Israel. But that would also mean that the deployment options for the Israeli arsenal would be drastically limited the moment an opponent also has nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons would then be a decision for the collective suicide of one’s own and generic country. A fictitious example: If Golda Meir had tried to stop the Egyptian and Syrian tank masses with nuclear weapons in 1973, it could have led to massive nuclear retaliation. In order not to end up in this situation, Israel must literally do everything to ensure that none of its neighbors also arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

Gaza is not an option

But even today, without the threat of a nuclear counterattack, the use of nuclear weapons is the last possible option. An operation in the northern Gaza Strip, as suggested by the now suspended minister Amihai Eliyahu, is completely unthinkable. For pragmatic reasons alone. The fallout from an explosion above the surface would reach the Israeli heartland and especially the troops massed around Gaza. In addition, a nuclear explosion would make Israel a pariah in the international community and largely end international support for the country. Governments friendly to Israel would continue to come under strong domestic pressure.