Have the corona measures had a decisive effect in containing the pandemic? An RKI analysis now answers this with “Yes”. In particular, the combination of precautions was decisive.
Many corona measures have caused heated discussions during the pandemic. These included the obligation to wear masks, contact restrictions, closed schools and daycare centers. According to a study by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), it has now been proven that the strict restrictions on public life have made a significant contribution to combating the corona pandemic.
In addition, the measures “prevented the health system from being severely overloaded in the time until effective vaccines were developed,” summarize the experts.
Combination of different precautions
In particular, the implementation of various precautions was decisive for the fact that a person infected with the Sars-CoV-2 pathogen infected significantly fewer people than without the measures, according to the published RKI report. “The different model approaches show that individual measures were not sufficient to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany,” the study reads. Only the combination of “non-pharmaceutical measures” in very different areas could bring about this.
For the “StoptCOVID” study, the scientists considered more than 20 of these “non-pharmaceutical measures” that were prescribed between March 2020 and August 2021. These include the obligation to wear masks, school closures and distance regulations. Data on vaccinations against the corona virus were also included in the study.
Measures appear to be effective even before implementation
In the comprehensive investigation, the RKI experts came to the conclusion that “less severe” protective requirements such as hygiene concepts or limiting the number of people at public events would also have had a “relevant effect” in fighting the pandemic.
The report also notes another aspect: the number of infections fell during the observation period even before a new regulation was implemented. “That means the measures took effect before they even came into force,” said an RKI expert. This is probably because people – knowing that a new measure would come – would have already followed it, for example reduced their contacts.
No clear position on school closures
When assessing the particularly controversial school closures, the scientists were cautious. “There are indications in various works that school closures have slowed the spread of COVID-19,” the authors write. At the same time, many adverse developments in children have been observed as a result of school closures.
In addition to the non-pharmaceutical measures, a high vaccination rate made a significant contribution to fewer people becoming infected. “This led to a significantly weaker third wave of Covid-19, especially in the older population,” says the report.
County data for evaluation
The evaluation is based on data from the districts, which were documented by the Bonn Institute for Applied Social Sciences (infas) on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The effects of the measures on the infection process were calculated based on the development of the so-called R value. This value indicates how many people an infected person infects on average.
In the study, the researchers themselves pointed out that the significance of the individual findings could be limited. For example, the effectiveness of the contact restrictions in private homes cannot be reliably determined because it can be assumed that such requirements have often been disregarded. They also pointed out that the R value was also influenced by other factors – such as the applicable test strategy. The more that is tested, the more infections are known and the higher the R value increases.
Mental health in focus
According to the authors, however, one aspect should be given more consideration in future pandemics: the mental health of people and their coexistence could suffer from protective measures. Possible negative consequences of precautions and their mitigation should therefore be given more consideration when planning a pandemic.
The RKI, which reports to the Federal Ministry of Health, regularly issued risk assessments and recommendations for infection protection during the pandemic. These regularly caused discussions.