Rising corona numbers: Drosten warns of “winter wave”

The virologist Drosten has expressed concern about the low vaccination rate in his eyes. He warned of a false sense of security given the low incidence. Because it is increasing continuously – especially among young people.

In view of the increasing number of new infections, especially among younger people, the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten has called for a significantly higher vaccination rate. You need it to avoid a heavy winter wave, he said in an interview with the dpa news agency. “In view of the low incidence in Germany, many people believe they have a false sense of security,” said Drosten. He is “increasingly concerned” that the vaccination progress is not going faster.

According to the RKI, around 60 percent of the German population has currently been vaccinated against the corona virus. 48 percent have the full protection, for which a second vaccination is necessary for most vaccines. According to the RKI, so-called herd immunity is achieved with a vaccination rate of more than 80 percent.

The RKI is currently speaking of a relaxed infection situation in Germany – but warns with a view to autumn to prevent the threatened increase in the number of cases. This is because the seven-day incidence has been rising continuously for the past two weeks. According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in the morning, it was 13.2 – the previous day the value was 12.2 and the most recent low on July 6th was 4.9. This is also due to the greater spread of the delta variant.

Incidence increase especially among 15 to 34 year olds

The focus is particularly on the younger ones, because according to the RKI, the increase in incidence has so far been observed primarily in people between the ages of 15 and 34. While the values ​​in the groups aged 60 and over changed only minimally and at a very low level in the past few weeks (less than five cases per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days), the RKI recorded relatively strong increases for younger people. The highest seven-day incidence of 32 in the past week was recorded in adolescents and young adults between 15 and 24 years of age.

Severe disease courses from Covid-19 are relatively rare in young people, at the same time the vaccination rate for people under 60 is currently significantly lower than for those over 60. The Standing Vaccination Commission has not yet issued a vaccination recommendation for young people under 16.

The example of Great Britain shows the magnitudes of the incidences: the number of new infections per 100,000 people within a week among young adults was last just under 1,155 – the highest incidence value ever recorded since the outbreak of the pandemic last year. In England, almost all corona measures had recently been lifted – despite the delta variant.

Doctors warn of increasing patient numbers

The President of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine (Divi), Gernot Marx, assumes that thanks to the vaccinations, relatively fewer people with the Delta variant will have a difficult course – “you can already see that in Great Britain”. “What we always have to keep in mind, however: We have not yet vaccinated many, many millions of people or have not yet completely vaccinated them. If the rate of new infections is then many times higher, the number of patients can be absolutely as high as in the second and third wave, “said Marx to the dpa.

Virologist Drosten also assumes that the number of hospital patients could rise again: “If the vaccination rate is not significantly increased, a severe winter wave can be expected.” More needs to be done now, “especially on the communication level”. You have to inform as many people as possible and get them to get vaccinated. “Every adult can make his contribution through vaccination so that society, culture and economy do not have to be restricted again in the winter half-year,” said Drosten.