The RKI recently recorded a massive increase in new corona infections – and the trend is continuing. What could protect against infection in winter.
A year ago there was still no approved vaccine against the coronavirus. Lockdowns, contact restrictions and hygiene rules were the essential measures to slow down the spread of the pathogen and thus avoid as many serious illnesses and deaths as possible. In November 2021, the situation is significantly different, better. Four Covid 19 vaccines have now been approved in Germany, and a good two thirds of the population are fully vaccinated against the virus.
However, in view of the current infection rate, experts do not expect a relaxed autumn and winter. “At the beginning we may have overestimated how much you can stop the spread of the virus with a vaccination rate of around 70 percent,” says Christine Falk, President of the German Society for Immunology (DGfI). “The way we live at the moment, with open schools, open shops, larger events again and so on, the virus is spreading rapidly, especially among the unvaccinated. We have to learn to deal with these high numbers.”
“The current development is not surprising, and it will continue for a while,” says Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology – BIPS. “I expect that we will reach a nationwide incidence of around 200 in the next few weeks. The numbers will probably not increase much higher if we maintain protective measures.”
The “Alliance of the Reasonable”
With the increasing incidences, the pressure is growing, especially on the unvaccinated, who, according to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), are currently recording the majority of all symptomatic new infections and hospital admissions. “In autumn and winter, however, we will see more infections again among those who have been vaccinated, especially among older people over the age of 70 and those with certain previous illnesses,” says Falk. Especially in these groups, one must expect an increasing number of hospital admissions, as data from the RKI showed.
The infections among vaccinated people do not speak against the vaccination, experts emphasize again and again. “The aim of vaccine development was not primarily to trigger an immune response that would protect against any infection,” said Hendrik Streeck, director of the Virology Institute at the University of Bonn, recently. “It was always about the protection against severe courses.” Because of so-called breakthrough infections, one can in no way speak of a failure of the vaccines.
In order to curb the spread of the virus to a large extent, Falk relies on an “alliance of the sensible”. “The 75 percent of adults who have had themselves vaccinated will think about how best to protect themselves now. You shouldn’t underestimate the power of this group.” Specifically, it is a matter of adapting one’s behavior similar to last autumn despite the vaccination, i.e. observing the hygiene and distance rules, wearing a mask and regularly ventilating the interior. “In addition, tests are still very important in order to reduce the spread of the virus and the risk of infection,” emphasizes Falk. For example, vaccinated people should do a rapid antigen test before meeting in larger groups. Even with supposedly harmless runny nose or cold symptoms, a test can provide a little more security.
Incidence depends on compliance with protective measures
Experts tend not to believe that the vaccination rate will increase significantly in the coming autumn weeks. “Without the introduction of mandatory vaccinations, I don’t see any major leaps,” says Zeeb. Nevertheless, it is important to offer vaccinations that are as low-threshold as possible and without barriers, as this could still get a few percent out of the vaccination quota. The results of a recently published Forsa survey commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Health also suggest that the vaccination quota is largely stagnating. Accordingly, nine out of ten people in Germany who have not yet received a corona vaccination do not want to be vaccinated in the near future. Doubts about the safety of the vaccines, fear of side effects or, in principle, the rejection of the great pressure on unvaccinated people are given as reasons.
“How much the numbers will rise in the further course depends primarily on how the known protective measures are observed and how the vaccination rates in children and adolescents develop,” says Zeeb. A good 40 percent of 12 to 17-year-olds are currently fully vaccinated, and no vaccine has yet been approved for children under the age of 12. The European Medicines Agency Ema recently announced that it would decide before Christmas if possible whether it would recommend corona vaccinations for children between the ages of five and eleven.
The role of boosters
It is currently being discussed to what extent booster vaccinations are important to curb the incidence of infections. The Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko) recommends this for people over 70, people with a weakened immune system, residents of nursing homes, nursing staff and medical staff who have direct contact with patients. People who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine can also improve their protection with a dose of mRNA vaccine. The Vaccination Ordinance provides the possibility of refreshment for everyone for whom there are approved vaccines.
A team led by mobility researcher Kai Nagel from the TU Berlin recently suggested that the booster vaccinations should be extended to all adults. According to studies, the boosters reduced the risk of the pathogen being transmitted and could thus help prevent it from spreading, the scientists write in their latest Modus Covid report. Health Minister Jens Spahn recently promoted the expansion of booster vaccinations.
While vaccinated people can feel much safer this autumn and winter, the situation in the intensive care units will probably hardly differ from that of last year. “We do not expect a winter that is very different from the last two,” said the President of the Intensive Care Medicine Association, Gernot Marx, recently told the editorial network Germany. However, he assumes that all patients can be fully cared for. “But operations are being canceled again and nursing staff has to be withdrawn from other areas,” he affirmed earlier statements.