It won’t be specific, not at all. The joint draft that the participants of this year’s World Climate Conference published on Monday, falls short of the expectations of climate protectors. “Particularly weak,” commented the environmental protection organization Greenpeace on the paper in a message.
The representatives of the nearly 200 countries got off to an ambitious start in the negotiations. The starting point and goals are clearly outlined: year after year, greenhouse gas emissions, which are permanently changing the climate, are increasing. The 2015 Paris Agreement stipulates the limitation of global warming to below two degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial age, as well as the serious attempt to keep it below 1.5 degrees. The countries are still a long way from that. In the first draft of the climate pact of this conference it now only says that one sees the need for action in order to be able to adhere to the 1.5 degree target. Although everyone knows how tight time is.
The earth has already warmed up by 1.1 degrees Celsius on a global average compared to the pre-industrial age. In 2016, the annual mean climbed to 1.3 degrees more than in the comparison period between 1880 and 1900.
Implemented, announced and necessary goals
This global warming is man-made: since the beginning of industrialization in the 18th century, global emissions of climate-damaging greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane have increased at an increasing rate. If emissions are not drastically reduced from now on in the coming decades, the consequences of the climate catastrophe such as extreme periods of drought, far-reaching melted ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic and a rise in sea levels can no longer be prevented.
According to calculations by the environmental organization Climate Action Tracker, the promises of the nations that have now gathered in Glasgow for the World Climate Conference should not be enough to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (shown by the yellow line in the graphic). The resolutions are heading towards a temperature of 2.1 to 2.4 degrees Celsius more than in the pre-industrial age in 2100 – if the countries stick to their own targets. The measures actually taken so far would even mean a temperature increase of 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius at the turn of the next century.
How closely the global economy is related to greenhouse gas emissions became apparent last year when not only did economic output collapse as a result of the pandemic, but also CO₂ emissions were lower in many countries. However, this development was not sustainable – according to preliminary figures from the Global Carbon Project, CO₂ emissions in 2021 are likely to return to roughly the level of 2019.
Per capita, small countries with large oil reserves such as Qatar (37 tons) and Saudi Arabia (18 tons) the most CO₂. With Australia (15.3 tons), the USA and Canada (14.2 tons each), there are also large industrial nations ahead of Russia (10.8 tons). With per capita emissions of 7.4 tons, China has almost reached the level of Germany, while India (1.7 tons) also had fewer emissions per capita in 2020 than China in 1990.
At least there is a positive development: most regions have been able to increase their economic output since 2000 more than their CO₂ emissions. Between 0.13 and 0.37 kilograms of CO2 were emitted per dollar of economic output, with Europe reducing this value by a third between 2000 and 2018. A complete decoupling of economic power and emissions has not yet been achieved.
While delegates from around 200 countries came to Glasgow, the heads of government of major emitters were absent from the “World Leaders Summit”. Xi Jinping from China, who in 2020 emits almost a third of global CO₂ emissions, was absent, as were Vladimir Putin (Russia, 4.5 percent) and Ebrahim Raisi (Iran, 2.1 percent).
Although the heads of government of some of the emission front-runners did not come to Glasgow, at least a few resolutions to save the climate have been presented there: methane emissions are to be reduced, deforestation prevented and the coal phase-out initiated.
Reduce methane emissions by a third
Methane is a greenhouse gas that causes more global warming per tonne emitted than CO₂, but remains in the atmosphere for less time. As early as September, the EU and the USA proposed reducing methane emissions by at least 30 percent by 2030. More than 100 countries have joined this initiative. Together they account for 70 percent of the global economy. However, the countries with the highest methane emissions – China, Russia and India – have not yet joined the initiative.
The implementation of this initiative would be an important correction of the course, because despite a half-life of methane in the atmosphere of around nine years, the methane values there have been rising again since 2006. Whether it is because more methane is being emitted or whether the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is currently only being broken down more slowly, is unclear.
However: According to a report by the United Nations Environment Program, a reduction of 40 to 45 percent would be necessary in this decade to achieve the 1.5 degree target. The decision in Glasgow was less ambitious.
Prevent deforestation
According to the Global Forest Watch, 25.8 million hectares of forest were lost worldwide in 2020. 25.8 million hectares, an area almost as large as New Zealand, like more than 36 million soccer fields, or, if you want, more than 100 times the Saarland. Of course, forest has also grown back and has been reforested; Nature, which had been destroyed in the previous years, recovered. But the bottom line is that the trend is clear: Forests are shrinking – and with them the considerable amount of CO₂ that they could bind.
Numerous states now want to counter this. The commitment of more than 100 countries to stop the destruction of forests and other valuable ecosystems by 2030 at the latest is one of the most promising reports of this year’s World Climate Conference so far. However, there was a similar promise with the “New York Declaration of Forests” in 2014. It also envisaged an end to deforestation by 2030. Their intermediate goal of halving deforestation by 2020 has not been achieved. However, this year’s new edition is supported by important countries such as Brazil and Russia, which were not part of the New York Declaration.
This is important because they are among the countries with the largest forest areas in the world. In addition to Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have also signed. This means that on paper the countries in which most of the primeval forest can be found are also on board.
Primeval forests are one of the most important shields against climate change because they store significantly more CO₂ than other forests. Burning them means releasing this CO₂, in addition to the enormous loss of species that goes along with it. Nevertheless, the rainforest is still being cleared, there is more belt clearing, often illegally. Last year alone, according to Global Forest Watch, an area of primeval forest was lost around the world that is roughly the size of Switzerland as a whole – 1.7 million hectares of which in Brazil alone. After all, the decline of the primeval forests has slowed down in the past few decades, according to an analysis by the FAO, the food and agriculture organization of the United Nations.
On the occasion of the World Climate Conference, the FAO published a study this week that looked at the reasons for deforestation and analyzed numerous satellite images for this purpose. According to this, almost 90 percent of the deforestation between 2000 and 2018 was intended to create new areas for agriculture. In more than half of the cases, forest was removed to expand arable land, especially in Africa and Asia. 37.5 percent of the cleared forests became grazing land for cattle. A pact for the protection of the forests would have to start where it could hurt economically. By 2025, around 12.5 billion US dollars (around 10.3 billion euros) should flow for this.
Exit from coal
The number of decommissioned coal-fired power plants around the world is increasing every year. At the same time, however, many new power plants continue to be connected to the grid with ever greater output. How many coal-fired power plants there are and what power they each have is not recorded on a global level. Scientists and environmental organizations at the US think tank Global Energy Monitor therefore compile the power plants and their key data from numerous sources. The monitor determines a net balance of global coal capacity – and this has been unbroken for years: Although its growth is slowing because more and more countries are withdrawing from coal – the bottom line is still a plus, the net change is still positive.
From Glasgow we heard good news about the coal phase-out last week: After Information from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change At least 23 countries, including Indonesia, Vietnam and Poland, signed a commitment to phase out coal power. “The end of coal energy is in sight,” confirmed Alok Sharma, President of COP26. However, some countries such as China and the USA are holding back: They did not guarantee a coal phase-out.
China in particular is still one of the biggest drivers of the coal industry. According to one Global Energy Monitor report The comprehensive commissioning of Chinese power plants in 2020 (total capacity: 38.4 gigawatts) compensated for the closures in the rest of the world – which again resulted in an increase in global coal capacity. Last year, power plants with a total capacity of 37.8 gigawatts were shut down, more than ever before, especially in the USA (11.3 gigawatts) and the EU (10.1 gigawatts).
After all, in September China announced that it would stop financing coal projects abroad. To Information from the Global Energy Monitor this refers to 44 power plants that should be financed by Chinese funds. Contrary to what was suspected, however, fossil fuels are not mentioned in the first draft of the climate pact, which was published on Monday.
Shipping will be CO₂-neutral by 2050
International shipping is the source of around 2.2 percent of global CO₂ emissions. As recently as 2008, it was projected that their contribution would grow by 50 to 250 percent by the middle of the century. In the same year 173 states decided to cut shipping emissions in half by 2050. One Danish initiative in Glasgow is now trying to expand this promise – with the goal of CO₂-neutral shipping by 2050. The USA and twelve other countries supported this initiative last Monday, but the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will not make any fixed decisions until 2023.
Actions must follow
The EU is currently on a course that corresponds to global warming between two and three degrees. This is based on data from the Climate Action Tracker. This takes into account that industrialized countries can make their economies independent of emissions more quickly than others and can therefore do more climate protection (a “fair share”).
Some of the above initiatives have not yet been implemented – for example not cast into law – and are not included in this assessment.
Ultimately, the promises made do not have to be measured by their possible CO₂ reduction, but by their implementation.
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