Republicans – who is more likely to give up: Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis?

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US area code Iowa
Fight for second place behind Trump – who is more likely to give up: Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis?

The primary election has only just begun, but the Republicans have basically made the decision: There is no way around Donald Trump for the presidential candidacy. The question remains: Who will finish second: Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis?

At the end of the heavily snowy evening, it was almost something of a small victory for the man from the Sunshine State. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second in the first vote in the early presidential campaign. Although clearly behind the winner Donald Trump, but still ahead of Nikki Haley. You, the Republican of the hour. He, the one who had recently fallen badly in the polls and had put everything on one card in Iowa.

What the start of the primary in Iowa reveals about the election

Iowa – few people, a lot of corn – is traditionally the first state to vote on candidates, which is why the whole country is watching the results there. It almost never says anything about who will end up in the presidential race, let alone who will win the election in November. This year, the primary election sealed at least one political fate: the fourth presidential candidate, the right-wing entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, has withdrawn his candidacy.

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So, in addition to two counting candidates, there are still three Republicans in the race for the candidacy, although neither Nikki Haley nor Ron DeSantis will have a chance of catching up with the elusive Donald Trump. So the question arises as to how long the two of them will continue to endure the pre-election stress. Or want.

Ron DeSantis, for example has become everyone’s greeting August for the Iowa vote. “He visited all 99 counties, stopped in the smallest towns and pubs to answer questions from residents and the press,” writes the “New York Times” about the election campaign of the man from far away Florida. Estimated cost: a mid-eight-figure sum. Only for this state with its almost three million inhabitants.

How much money does Ron DeSantis have left?

Until the summer, Ron DeSantis was still equipped with a generous financial cushion. But the more money his campaign spent, the further he fell in the polls. In December, reports of a lack of donations began circulating, but it is now unclear how long his money will last to run a presidential campaign. In any case, DeSantis has not become more attractive to potential donors after the vote in Iowa.

Forecast: Even though the governor of Florida could have been hit harder in the first primary election, he is likely to be extremely dissatisfied with the overall development. If he doesn’t see a runoff in the primary election in South Carolina, home of opponent Nikki Haley, by the end of February at the latest, he is likely to drop out of the race. But probably earlier.

For Nikki Haley, who is turning 52 these days, the vote in Iowa may have been a setback, even if only a small one. She is the shooting star, overtaking Ron DeSantis in the party’s internal polls at the end of the year and is considered the favorite for second place in the next primary election in New Hampshire at the end of January. Even a win is not completely out of the question.

She survived Donald Trump unscathed

Haley was US ambassador to the United Nations under Donald Trump and is one of the very few top Republicans who have politically survived his environment. But that doesn’t make her election campaign any easier. On the one hand, they share a common past from which it is difficult for her to distance herself, but on the other hand, she has to differentiate herself more clearly from the ex-US president in order to be considered an alternative. “This two-track approach could be interpreted as indecision,” writes star-Washington correspondent Marc Etzold.

But Haley may not have any intention of becoming US president. At least not yet. Because the Republicans are firmly in the hands of Donald Trump, there is no way around him so quickly – especially not as a woman.

Forecast: With her candidacy, she may already be preparing the ground for the post-Trump era. Or she is considering a position in Trump’s next government – for example as US Vice President. All she has to do is become the clear number two in the party. So: last longer than Ron DeSantis.

Sources: “The Hill“, “New York Times”, “Financial Times“, NBC News, FEC, 270towin.com