analysis
Even if challenger Haley sells her weak performance as a success: After the primary election in New Hampshire, there are many signs that Trump will be nominated. There is no surprise among the Democrats either.
After an election there are only winners, because each candidate interprets the result in his favor – as did Donald Trump and Nikki Haley in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. The US state is often good for surprises in primary elections – this time there was no surprise: Trump achieved the highest share of votes ahead of his challenger Haley.
This shows that the Republican presidential candidacy can no longer be taken away from the ex-president. He dominates the party, the majority of Republican voters support him – despite the four criminal cases against him with a total of 91 charges. Never before has a Republican won both primaries without also being chosen as the presidential candidate.
The behavior of prominent Republicans also shows how much Trump has his party under control. Former challengers like Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott, representatives like Elise Stefanik and senators like Ted Cruz from Texas have pledged support for Trump. Even those who previously criticized the ex-president and who in return were sometimes scorned below the belt by Trump.
And it only took a few hours for Republicans to call on Haley to end her candidacy: It is now time to unite behind Trump, said House Speaker Mike Johnson. Pressure on Haley from within the party will increase in the coming days and weeks.
Nonpartisan voters didn’t help Haley
The former UN ambassador and former governor of South Carolina congratulated Trump. She presented herself combatively to her supporters in New Hampshire and emphasized that the race was far from over. She is a fighter. And she emphasized that she had managed to get almost half of the votes. “What a great night,” Haley announced, beaming.
The result can be interpreted more as a defeat: New Hampshire is the state in which Haley’s starting position was better than anywhere else. Because there her gap in polls was significantly smaller than in other states. She has prominent supporters there, especially New Hampshire’s popular Governor Chris Sununu. There she poured millions of dollars into the election campaign. There, unaffiliated voters were also allowed to vote for either the Democrats or the Republicans. Haley was hoping for her. None of this helped her.
Nikki Haley is not yet giving up – but after the primary election in New Hampshire it has become even more unlikely that she will become the Republican presidential candidate.
Her supporter Sununu has repeatedly emphasized that Haley doesn’t have to win New Hampshire. It would come down to “Super Tuesday” on March 5th, when 16 states voted. More than a third of the Republican delegates will be chosen that day. All of this is correct.
But if Haley fails to defeat Trump in New Hampshire, it is hard to imagine a primary victory in another US state. Even in her home state of South Carolina, where the Republican primary takes place on February 24th, things are not looking as good for her as in the run-up to New Hampshire. And a lot will depend on her sponsors: If they turn off the money, the election campaign will be over for Haley, whether she wants it or not.
The Democratic primary – more of a side note
The Democratic primary election result in New Hampshire seems to be just a side note. President Joe Biden was not on the ballot as a presidential candidate because of an internal party dispute between the Democrats over their opening state in the primaries, but a total of 21 other candidates were. Nevertheless, Biden won the election: voters were able to enter his name on the ballot paper by hand. Anything other than a victory would have been embarrassing for Biden.
Biden is almost certain as the Democratic candidate. The result in New Hampshire has made it even more likely: a new edition of the duel between Biden and Trump for the presidency, which significantly more than half of Americans do not want.
This is also why Trump would be a thorn in the side if Haley continues to fight: He would rather concentrate fully on the election campaign against Biden. The internal party competitor can make life difficult for him until the Republican nomination convention in July – if she stays in the race that long.