report
Population growth could be stopped as early as 2040
According to a new forecast, the world population could peak at 8.5 billion people as early as 2040 and decline to around 6 billion by the end of the century. photo
© Victoria Jones/PA Wire/dpa
In 2080, the world population should reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people. At least that was the forecast so far. However, the peak may occur earlier.
According to a new forecast, the world population could peak at 8.5 billion people as early as 2040 and decline to around 6 billion by the end of the century. The prerequisite, however, is a “giant leap” in investments in economic development, education and health, according to the international initiative Earth4All. The United Nations (UN) does not expect a peak of around 10.4 billion people until 2080, according to a report from the summer of 2022.
According to the UN, the world population passed the 8 billion mark in November. The world population was last at 6 billion people around the year 2000.
In the working paper “People and Planet” published on Monday, the Earth4All researchers draw two possible scenarios for the future. In the first, the world continues to develop economically in a similar way as in the last 50 years. Then the population will reach its peak by 2050, according to the analysis. In the second scenario, this could even be achieved as early as 2040 if, among other things, there were larger investments in fighting poverty. The Earth4All experts are convinced that other prominent population forecasts often underestimate the importance of rapid economic development.
“We know that rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge impact on fertility rates,” said Per Espen Stoknes, director of the Earth4All project. “Fertility rates fall when girls are given access to education and women are economically empowered and have access to better health care.”