Status: 02/28/2022 12:01 p.m
“We don’t have to save ‘the climate’, we have to save ourselves” – this is how one scientist sums up the new IPCC report. If something decisive doesn’t happen by the end of the decade, it will be too late.
“The report is an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of a lack of political will,” says UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres – and his desperation is becoming increasingly clear when it comes to climate change. Your work is a contribution to the so-called sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Every six to seven years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change summarizes the current knowledge on the climate crisis. It was founded by the states of the world community for this purpose. Politicians wanted a reliable basis for decisions.
Ten thousand studies
The sixth assessment report is currently being published. In several parts. The second part on the consequences of climate change and the possibilities of adaptation is being published today. Around 300 main authors have summarized more than ten thousand studies. The drafts of the actual scientific report are revised in several rounds. Virtually anyone in the world can bring in their objections or additions. At the end there is a great academic work. From this, a short summary for politicians was drawn up over the past two weeks.
Risks greater than expected
Science works together with the states – a political process. Participants report that the historical responsibility of the industrialized countries for climate change was again disputed. The news that a Russian representative in the IPCC had apologized for the war in Ukraine also caused a stir.
The risks are greater than previously assumed, says Professor Hans-Otto Pörtner from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, co-chair of the working group responsible for the report. Decisive things must happen by the end of the decade, otherwise the time window will be closed. For the first time, the IPCC says it is “clear” that climate change is a threat to the well-being of humanity and the planet.
Up to 50 percent of systems need protection
Also new is that the report also sheds light on the connection between climate change, biodiversity and society. He emphasizes that 30 to 50 percent of the ecosystems, i.e. the land and sea surfaces as well as the fresh water resources, have to be protected from strong human interference. Nature needs this freedom to adapt to global warming and to be able to continue capturing CO2 in the long term. Currently, 15 percent of land and eight percent of water are protected.
Africa, Asia and Latin America
Heat, droughts and floods – the main risks as a result of climate change. Almost half of the world’s population (3.3 to 3.6 billion people) are potential victims of this crisis. Their livelihood is in jeopardy anyway, and they have little opportunity to absorb the additional stress caused by the consequences.
Africa, Asia, Latin America, the small island states and the Arctic are particularly affected. However, residents of large cities around the world are also affected. Prosperity plays a role: in poorer countries, people are 15 times more likely to die from a flood, drought or storm than in more prosperous areas.
Professor Jörg Birkmann from the University of Stuttgart, one of the main authors, notes that the industrialized countries want to help the poor with 100 billion dollars (approx. 90 billion euros) annually from 2020 onwards. A sum that has not been raised to this day. The damage to the Ahr in Germany alone added up to 30 billion euros.
From 1.5 degrees, the risks increase extremely
The report emphasizes in many places that beyond 1.5 degrees of warming, the risks increase extremely. The maximum daily amount of rain in Germany, for example, will only change moderately. On the other hand, if the temperature rises by three degrees, large parts would be affected. The number of hot days will also increase drastically, especially along the Upper Rhine. At three degrees, the number of heat deaths will be twice to three times as high as at 1.5 degrees. Although drought damage to agriculture can initially be mitigated by irrigation, with temperatures three degrees higher, water shortages limit this possibility.
The result would be migration
Globally, corn yields drop at just 1.5 degrees warming. At two degrees it will no longer be possible in many areas – especially in the tropics – to produce enough staple foods. There is currently no way to adapt to these changes.
The report calculates that this will lead to migration. With 1.7 degrees warming, 17 to 40 million people south of the Sahara could have to leave their homes, at 2.5 degrees it could be 56 to 86 million. However, most of the migrants stay in the region.
Risk of floods increases
Rising sea levels are increasingly endangering coastal regions. The probability of a flood event, which previously only occurred once every 100 years, increases by 20 percent if the water level is just 15 centimeters higher. And it doubles when it reaches 75 centimeters, which is quite possible by the end of the century.
The higher the average temperature rises, the more adaptation measures are required. Most of them are regional and well known: Heat protection and heavy rain plans in the cities, for example. But science also warns that every adaptation has limits. With temperatures above 50 degrees, which are becoming increasingly common in Australia, the Near and Middle East and also in parts of North America, no permanent life is possible. The combination of heat and flooding, such as in Bangladesh, also endangers habitats.
End of fossil fuels and forest destruction
Indeed, the language of science is very clear in this new report. There are practically no knowledge gaps. Professor Eckart von Hirschhausen’s comment gets to the point: “We don’t have to save ‘the climate’, we have to save ourselves.”
It is crucial to first fight and limit climate change yourself. Above all, that means getting out of fossil fuels and putting an end to the destruction of forests. Only then will the consequences remain manageable and adaptation even possible. However, adaptation is always linked to financial resources.
The connection between many different topics in the current report is also groundbreaking. However, this is both a strength and a weakness. Because when everything is connected to everything else, simple interventions are not enough. For example: The levees against rising tides destroy coastal ecosystems. This high level of complexity can easily lead to discouragement and inactivity. But the opposite of this is required: courage and action.