Release more hostages: Hamas’ calculations

As of: October 24, 2023 7:33 p.m

Hamas released two prisoners again. According to Israeli estimates, around 220 people are still being held. Given the expected counteroffensive, Hamas appears to be using the hostages as leverage.

Yocheved Lifschitz looks exhausted. Exhausted but happy. She sits in a wheelchair in a hospital in Tel Aviv – surrounded by her ten grandchildren. The photo can be seen on her grandson Daniel’s Instagram account. He says: “We really hope that this is just the beginning for further releases.” That is even more important than the current ones. “We hope this was just the beginning.”

Hamas handed Lifshitz and another woman over to the Red Cross that evening. They are 79 and 85 years old. An army helicopter flew them to a hospital in Tel Aviv that night. For the second time, the terrorist organization has let two of its prisoners go. According to the Israeli army, around 220 people are still in the hands of Hamas. Several of them also have a German passport.

“Not ready for a ground offensive”

It is unclear what exact conditions Hamas is setting for the releases. There has been no public talk of a prisoner exchange recently. A senior Hamas official abroad said only that Israel must stop its aggression.

For Hamas, the releases are apparently part of its psychological warfare. She wants to prove that she is ready to negotiate. And she probably wants to use this to put pressure on the Israeli government. The calculation: Israel is negotiating and waiting to launch a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip – which would give Hamas more time to prepare for it.

Former Major General Itzhak Brik explains the army’s wait-and-see approach with tactics on Israeli radio. “Instead of going in there, you should attack from the air. And keep the blockade going for months and make sure that they only get water, food and fuel. They have to be weakened with all their might. At the same time, the army has to use the time to… to prepare for war. Because the army is not yet ready for a ground offensive.”

Hundreds of aerial attacks

The military has mobilized around 360,000 reservists in record time. They are not only deployed in the Gaza Strip, but also on the border with Lebanon and in the occupied West Bank – a massive effort. Army spokesman Daniel Hagari said: “There are a whole range of considerations: strategic, operational and tactical. We have to look at the whole region, at the Gaza Strip.” And ultimately there is the political level, “whose decisions we carry out.”

That probably means: We are ready, but the order is still missing. In order to avoid a bloody ground offensive with high losses, the army continues to attack targets in the Gaza Strip from the air. Yesterday alone there were said to be more than 400 – tunnels and other terrorist retreats. It remains unclear when an offensive on the ground will begin.

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