Refugees: Germany must not duck back

Lukashenko’s actions are directed primarily against Brussels and Berlin. But the government must not allow itself to be blackmailed in the refugee debate – and must take action now.

Actually, it would now be Germany’s duty to assume responsibility in the EU. Because the approach of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to attract migrants from more than 70 countries and smuggle them into the EU is primarily not directed against Poland or Lithuania, but against Brussels and Berlin. Everyone knows that the people who are currently illegally entering the EU want to come to Germany in the vast majority of cases.

But of all places Berlin does not react. Chancellor Angela Merkel called Russian President Vladimir Putin and asked him to influence Lukashenko, it was said today. But that’s not a strategy.

The (too) simple explanation would be: There is a power vacuum: On the one hand, the Executive Chancellor no longer has the authority to start new initiatives on her last few meters. Especially since their ideas on migration in the majority of EU countries are likely to meet with rejection from the outset. On the other hand, SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz is not yet in office.

But these explanations are excuses. No more than a description of the situation – in the style of Merkel and Scholz.

Merkel and Scholz could become active internationally

The reality, however, looks different: Of course Merkel and Scholz could become internationally active. Just as they traveled together to the G20 summit, they could meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, start an initiative with France, approach Poland with a Franco-German plan, convene the Weimar Triangle.

There are ideas on how the EU could deal with the issue. Migration researcher Gerald Knaus, for example, calls for people seeking protection at the Belarusian border to be admitted and distributed only up to a deadline. In order to avoid a surge, he calls for migrants not to be accepted after the deadline, but to bring them to partner countries outside the EU, such as Ukraine. In partner countries with which the EU would have to negotiate appropriate contracts. According to Knaus, this would be an “anti-extortion pact” with which the EU could stand up to Lukashenko and Putin.

Still in campaign mode?

Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, who is involved in negotiations in one of the Ampel-AGs, does not seem to feel the need to act either. He only threatens the sanctions to be expanded and tightened and emphasizes that the EU cannot be blackmailed. Apparently, however, he sees himself neither as the acting foreign minister nor as a possible minister of a new traffic light government in the duty of German initiatives. So far, he has supported EU efforts to prevent flights to Minsk, for example. It should be clear to everyone: Migrants will find their way to Belarus even without direct flights.

When it comes to migration, the SPD, Greens and FDP are currently giving the impression that they are still in election campaign mode: Migration is not a winning issue, so it is not a statement.

No ideas

The real problem: Germany has no ideas that can win a majority in the EU, that can be implemented. One could also say: Germany is now almost isolated with its stance on the migration issue.

Scholz’s behavior gives an idea of ​​how the future chancellor might deal with the issue of migration. To put it bluntly: should the Greens face the debate. Then you could show whether your plan works, that more legal migration means less illegal migration.

All of this is all the more frightening as the explosive power of Lukashenko’s perfidious approach is enormous: the Belarusian ruler has already managed to stir up fears, if not to say panic, with a few thousands of migrants at the EU’s external border. Legalization of pushbacks, building walls – suddenly a lot is conceivable in the EU that was excluded just a few years ago.

At the same time, Lukashenko is supplying right-wing populists in European capitals with ammunition to incite against the EU and perhaps even influence the French presidential election. The right-wing populist Marine Le Pen has long had competition, and Eric Zemmour even threatens to be overtaken by the right.

Can you be blackmailed forever?

But the consequences could be even more far-reaching: What if some states lose their nerve and plead to lift sanctions against Minsk and Moscow? The EU would allow itself to be brought to its knees by Lukashenko and Putin, and could be blackmailed forever.

Great tasks await the government made up of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals. They can’t duck away much longer. The Greens in particular have made a name for themselves in recent years with a decidedly critical attitude towards Russia.

Should Annalena Baerbock really become foreign minister, as is currently being speculated in Berlin, there could be a few uncomfortable phone calls with Russian colleague Sergei Lavrov. It is currently unclear whether Baerbock and the Greens could come up with an anti-extortion pact, as demanded by migration researcher Knaus, or what alternatives they have. Because Germany is currently ducking away.