Refugees from Afghanistan: Hard to compare with 2015

In view of the situation in Afghanistan, politicians warn that a situation in Germany such as the 2015 refugee crisis must not be repeated. In fact, the situation can hardly be compared.

“We must not repeat the mistakes of 2015” – that says Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet. In the daily topics he said that at that time more than a million people were standing on the border with Austria. The deputy CDU chairwoman Julia Klöckner and CDU vice-president Thomas Strobl also warned that refugee movements like the one in 2015 should not happen again, “2015 must not be repeated”.

AfD top candidate and parliamentary group leader Alice Weidel called for the right to asylum to be suspended. A wave of migrants from Afghanistan is imminent. Germany is far from being able to cope with “the negative effects of the opening of the border in 2015”. “We must first think of the security of German citizens. Co-top candidate Tino Chrupalla also referred to 2015:” Germany cannot afford to lose control again like 2015 “.

Like in 2015?

In 2015, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria fled to neighboring Turkey via the Mediterranean Sea or overland. Even within Europe, many people were able to cross different borders. Germany took in around 890,000 people in 2015. However, they were not, as Laschet did in the daily topics put it, more than a million people at the borders of Austria.

In the years that followed, many EU countries began to control and secure their borders more closely, such as Croatia and Hungary. Greece is also trying to prevent people from fleeing across the Mediterranean. Turkey has been declared a safe third country. Because of the corona pandemic, there are particularly strict controls at borders.

Iran as a transit country?

The road from Afghanistan to Europe is also long, with one route going through Iran. Many Afghans are already living there, some for many years. According to UN information Most of the refugees from Afghanistan live in the neighboring countries of Pakistan (around 1.4 million people) and Iran (780,000 people). Germany has the third largest community of the Afghan diaspora with around 181,000 people.

According to the Integration Media Service, there are reports from Afghan refugees that the police in Iran cracked down on them. In addition, Tehran says it has now set up several buffer zones with refugee camps on the border with Afghanistan. If the situation in Afghanistan stabilizes again, then people would be sent back, they say.

The further route leads through Turkey, but there has recently been a hostile atmosphere towards refugees. In addition, Ankara wants to completely close the border with Iran with a wall. ARD correspondent Katharina Willinger says: “Many Turks have lost their former tolerance. Many of them vehemently refuse to accept more refugees, now mainly from Afghanistan.”

Border to Greece close

Greece has also already announced that it will stop a possible influx of migrants from Afghanistan at the country’s borders. This is what Migration Minister Notis Mitarakis said. “We do not want our country to become the EU’s gateway for people who want to leave for Europe,” said Mitarakis on Greek state television ERT. His country will continue to closely monitor the sea and land borders with Turkey.

Greece has numerous coastguards and border police patrols to monitor its sea and land borders with Turkey. In many cases, migrants are prevented from crossing from Turkey to the Greek islands. Athens denies that these are illegal returns, so-called pushbacks. In addition, today, compared to 2015, there are strict controls and fences within Europe, for example on the Hungarian border or on the border with Croatia. In addition, crossing borders is made more difficult by the controls due to the corona pandemic.

“There is no way out”

In Afghanistan, the people would first have to get to the borders from the cities controlled by the Taliban. Afghanistan has extreme climatic conditions, very hot summers and sometimes icy winters in the mountain regions. The few main roads are controlled by the Taliban. For these reasons, many people had recently fled to Kabul to seek safety from the advancing Taliban.

An Afghan who lives in Hamburg and whose family is in Herat said in an interview with the ARD fact finderthat there is no way for the people there to leave the country. The borders are closed, people would have to pay several thousand euros for visas. The banks are closed, however, so there is no money for an escape anyway. Nobody knows what the Taliban are planning. Many people are desperately looking for ways to escape – but this is not possible because air traffic has also been suspended. “There is no way out,” he says.

“Diversionary maneuver”

The organization Pro Asyl also thinks that there will be no more chance for many to get to safety. “People who have worked for German organizations and ministries or who campaigned for women’s and human rights are trapped in Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.” But everywhere “the limits are being drawn up. To draw comparisons with 2015 is a diversionary maneuver and ignores what the need of the hour would be: an immediate admission of people at risk”.

In fact, new escape routes could emerge in the medium term. However, given the huge distances, the closed borders and the situation in Afghanistan, it seems unlikely that hundreds of thousands of people will come to Europe at short notice.