A right-wing party is on the rise in Britain. Reform UK is calling for migration neutrality instead of climate neutrality – and is harshly criticizing the Tories under Prime Minister Sunak.
There will be elections in the UK over the next 12 months. After more than 13 years, a change of government is looming. According to surveys, the Labor Party has consistently been well ahead of the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak for more than a year.
Things are simmering with the Tories. The far right wing of the party in particular is dissatisfied with Sunak. And on the right side of the party spectrum, another party is now increasingly competing with the Tories: Reform UK.
Reform UK was able to double its poll numbers to almost ten percent last year. Because of Britain’s majority voting system, the party is not expected to win more than one or two seats in the next general election. But it could cost the Tories a lot of votes and tip the balance in favor of Labor in some constituencies.
Because Reform UK has set itself the goal of “destroying” the Conservatives. The party leader, Richard Tice, confirmed this just a few weeks ago: He wanted to ensure that the Tories “never achieve a majority again.”
Name change during the pandemic
Reform UK is wooing voters with slogans like “Let’s make Britain great” or “Let’s save Britain.” “Reform UK is a classic right-wing populist party,” says Nicolai von Ondarza from the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin – it is to the right of the conservatives.
The party is not a new player in Britain: it was founded in 2019 under the name Brexit Party. Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage joined the party shortly after its founding, having previously left the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) in a dispute over its direction. The party’s aim was to stop Prime Minister Theresa May’s soft Brexit course.
After Boris Johnson’s election victory and the implementation of hard Brexit, Farage withdrew from politics. His Brexit Party changed its name during the corona pandemic and renamed itself Reform UK. The entrepreneur Richard Tice has been chairman of the party since March 2021.
Influencer Nigel Farage
“In the British debate about reform, almost everything revolves around Farage,” says von Ondarza. At every party press conference the question is asked whether Farage will return to politics. He has a great influence in public discourse – also in addition to his own show on the right-wing conservative TV channel GB News.
In December, Farage took part in a reality TV show in the Australian jungle. According to a poll by YouGov pollsters, Farage was among the five most popular politicians in Britain in the fourth quarter of last year. Farage never sat as a member of the British House of Commons. Several attempts to obtain a mandate failed.
It remains to be seen whether Farage will return to the political arena. The Reform co-founder has been flirting with joining the conservative party for weeks. According to von Ondarza, speculation is rife that Farage could try to become leader of the Tories. At the beginning of October he showed up at the Tory party conference in Manchester and attracted all the spotlight.
British political scientist Mark Garnett from Lancaster University believes this scenario is unlikely. Farage has already made it into the history books with his Brexit campaign. Unlike Donald Trump, Farage does not want to be at the top. But he enjoys the public attention, as Garnett says.
Right-wing voices could be split
The Reform Party can still be dangerous for the conservatives. On the right, they are vying with the Tories for the electorate’s favor. Observers believe it is possible that the party will split the right-wing vote.
“If Reform UK runs in a large number of constituencies in the upcoming general election, it could cost the Tories a lot of MPs,” says von Ondarza. For example, if Labor had 35 percent of the vote in a district, the Conservatives had 25 and Reform 15, the constituency would go to Labor, even though Reform and Conservatives together had more votes.
Reservations about Sunak
Reform UK calls for an end to climate neutrality and calls for migration neutrality instead. Accordingly, only as many people should immigrate as the number of emigrants leaving the country.
Potential voters include Brexit supporters, the traditional right-wing spectrum and former working-class Labor voters. “The people who reject modern Britain,” says Mark Garnett. Reform UK appeals to people who think that the “political elite is woke and too liberal”.
Sunak is not well received by many people on the right-wing spectrum – also because he is very wealthy, as Garnett says. The Prime Minister has no real access to the citizens. Added to this is the so-called cost-of-living crisis and inflation.
“The Reform Party will definitely be successful in putting pressure on the conservatives,” believes von Ondarza. The influence of the right-wing populist party on the Tories’ policies is great, as the Conservatives need the right-wing votes to have a chance against Labor.
“The short-term aim of Reform UK is to pressure the Conservatives into adopting more right-wing policies,” says von Ondarza. “There is no room for two parties on the left or right of center in Britain’s majority voting system.”
First mood test in Wellingborough
Before the House of Commons election, the by-election in Wellingborough, central England, scheduled for mid-February, could show how big the influence of Reform UK is: a constituency in which many people voted for Brexit. The Tories have to worry about an actually safe seat there.
“By-elections are traditionally elections in which governments are punished,” says von Ondarza. Voter turnout is usually low. There will be no change to the composition of Parliament. In Welllingborough, Reform UK can achieve its first respectable success – and plunge the Conservatives further into crisis.