analysis
Since the end of the Merkel era, the CDU has been struggling to find its new course. During this time, a new generation has grown up that is hungry for power and well-connected with one another. And that could be dangerous for party leader Merz.
Berlin at the beginning of September, late summer. The break in the Bundestag is over. The city is filling up with politicians again and the calendars are filling up with events. This evening a late summer party is being celebrated in the state representation of Saxony-Anhalt, to which numerous members of the state parliament and state ministers have traveled from Magdeburg, including many CDU members.
At some point an awestruck murmur goes through their ranks: Hendrik Wüst will come by later. One of those present scoffs that a year ago the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia would not have shown himself here. But now things are different for Wüst than they were a year ago. Now Saxony-Anhalt’s Prime Minister Haseloff greets him when he actually shows up around 10 o’clock in the evening, loudly but with a wink: “A beer for the future candidate for chancellor!”
Haseloff, who is considered an elder statesman in the party, can afford such taunts. The scene, however, shows that the debate about the candidacy for chancellor, even if not in public, is certainly being held within the CDU. A name that always comes up is that of the head of North Rhine-Westphalia.
State leaders with tailwind
Even if there is certainly no question that Wüst is a favorite, he could pose a threat to party leader Friedrich Merz – especially when it comes to the process in which the candidate for chancellor is determined. Because Wüst is part of a group of young CDU men who lead important state associations, who know each other well, share similar positions and, above all, want one thing: to have a say in the selection process of the candidate for chancellor.
On the one hand, in Schleswig-Holstein there is Daniel Günther, who is also decried as “Comrade Günther” among particularly conservatives in the CDU. But even his critics cannot deny Günther that his liberal course won over 40 percent in last year’s state elections and thus forced the AfD out of the state parliament. You can’t ignore him in the CDU. Günther is obviously not very enthusiastic about the course that Merz is taking.
Another successful election campaigner also often advocates a centrist course: Boris Rhein, who recently won the state elections in Hesse. He has also already clearly called for a say in the question of the candidate for chancellor. Kai Wegner, Berlin’s governing mayor since the beginning of the year, has also joined this demand. He was one of the first to publicly object after Merz’s controversial statements about cooperation with the AfD at the local level.
A modern conservatism
There is also a new, young CDU voice in Wegner’s neighboring state of Brandenburg. Jan Redmann, state chairman since spring of this year, has so far made little mention of himself in federal politics – but that will probably change next year at the latest. There will be elections in Brandenburg in September and Redmann wants to succeed the incumbent, SPD politician Dietmar Woidke, as the top candidate. His chances aren’t bad. According to the current Brandenburg trend, only two percentage points separate the CDU and SPD.
Redmann is currently focusing primarily on his federal state, is traveling to many municipalities and is trying to strengthen the area. He doesn’t need an internal party dispute over the candidate for chancellor in an election year. An orderly procedure should therefore be in his interest.
Jan Redmann, parliamentary group leader of the Brandenburg CDU in the state parliament
The same applies to Manuel Hagel. He is the new man for the CDU in Baden-Württemberg. He wants to be elected chairman at the party conference in November. Hagel is the youngest of the new CDU faces, in his mid-thirties, with deep roots in the country.
Elections in Baden-Württemberg are not expected to take place for another three years, but if Hagel runs as the top candidate, he could well become Prime Minister. Because the veteran Winfried Kretschmer is no longer running, so the Green Party candidate will no longer have an office bonus.
Hagel represents modern conservatism. For example, he spoke out early on in favor of equality for homosexual and heterosexual couples.
What role do they play in the K question?
These CDU men are not only close politically. Some of them have known each other for years, mostly from the Junge Union. Wüst and Redmann even lived together. Hagel is also on friendly terms with the NRW Prime Minister. It’s no secret that Wüst gets along well with Rhein and Günther. Some in the party are already talking about an “Andean Pact 2.0”, based on the infamous alliance of West German CDU leaders around Volker Bouffier.
What power this supposed pact actually has will probably become clear by spring of next year at the latest. Until then, the pressure on Merz to act will increase to present a procedure for choosing the candidate for chancellor. Until now it had been said from the Konrad Adenauer House that the chairmen of the CDU and CSU, Merz and Söder, would come to an agreement in due course.
But if the state chairmen get their way and have a say, the question arises: Who will they speak out for? This depends on a number of factors that cannot yet be foreseen: the timing of the candidate selection, the results of the European elections and the state elections in East Germany and the popularity ratings of the applicants for the position. One thing is certain, however: If the CDU associations get involved, it would increase Wüst’s chances of getting the position.