In mid-June came the news that Canada and Denmark had ended the “whisky war” after almost half a century. This conflict was not about the better distillate, but about an island in the Arctic, namely Hans Island between Greenland and Ellesmere Island, which belongs to Canada. Where island is almost said too much, it was actually just about a slightly larger rock in the Arctic Sea, on which Canada and Denmark alternately hoisted their national flags and, as a sign of goodwill, always deposited a bottle of whiskey for the other side. The “war” was now ended by simply drawing the line across the stone.
However, this conflict is more than just a curiosity, because it shows several of the unresolved or still threatening problems in the Arctic region. That’s why the security expert Michael Paul mentions him in his book “The Battle for the North Pole”, in which he very meticulously compiled the most important facts about all current developments between Alaska and Norway, Greenland and Russia.
Climate change makes sea routes possible
The fact that the Arctic will gain in foreign policy relevance in the coming decades is primarily due to climate change. Retreating ice makes shipping routes such as the famous Northwest Passage, but also new trade routes north of Russia navigable, which previously could only be used at immense expense with the help of icebreakers and even then only at great risk. In addition, sources of raw materials are now accessible that would previously have been far too expensive and time-consuming to develop.
In the Arctic there is still a large amount of fossil fuels, ores, minerals, precious metals and rare earth metals to be exploited, which is why Russia planted its national flag on the seabed at a depth of 4000 meters in 2007. A demonstration of power, because exchanging this flag and depositing a bottle of whiskey is much more expensive than on Hans Island.
Especially since the ambitions and capabilities of the players currently active in the far north are very different: from Iceland, which patrols its own waters with just three coast guard ships, to the Russian icebreaker and nuclear submarine fleet. Because another factor that makes the Arctic relevant for great powers is the comparatively short distances, not only for container ships, but also for ICBMs. Russia and the USA have therefore both shown in the past that their submarines are capable of breaking through the ice at the pole and launching missiles from there.
Russia was particularly aggressive
In general, as Paul shows in many examples, Russia in particular has behaved in a similarly aggressive manner in recent decades as in other regions of the world and even tried to expand its own economic zone by hundreds of nautical miles. In the book, Paul was only able to take the war in the Ukraine into account in passing and some assessments in his conclusion, such as mutual transparency between NATO and Russia in the deployment of cruise missiles or the “information and verification regime”, do not appear wrong with today’s knowledge, but the problems lie elsewhere. With the possible NATO accession of Sweden and Finland, the fronts in the Arctic will tend to harden further.
Paul has now an essay on the current developments, in which he writes: “All this means that a conflict in the Arctic as a result of events outside the region can no longer be ruled out.” One more reason to deal more intensively with this region in the future. Although one has to object that if the Russian fleet is in the same position as the army, then the threat posed by Russia to the NATO countries in the region may not be quite as great as feared.
Michael Paul: The Battle for the North Pole. The Arctic, climate change and great power rivalry. Herder Verlag, Freiburg 2022. 287 pages, 18 euros. E-book: 13.99 euros.
As another, rather unexpected player in the Arctic, Paul has long identified China in his book, which describes itself as a “near Arctic state”, although the northernmost port of the People’s Republic is 5700 kilometers from the North Pole. Of course, the Chinese still want to get involved in undeveloped raw material deposits and cheap rocket launch sites, and some party officials are probably already dreaming of a new Silk Road in the far north. Large real estate purchases by the Chinese in Iceland and Finland, allegedly to build holiday resorts there, could be prevented at the last moment. The Chinese Icebreaker snow dragon is still constantly on the move in the Arctic.
Sober, factual and well-founded, Paul traces these major conflicts in the Arctic, all of which have the potential to help shape world politics in the coming decades. He also addresses topics such as Greenland’s desired independence from Denmark, the role of the indigenous population and endangered nature and emphasizes their relevance for political decisions. The book is structured so clearly that the reader can start the entire expedition to the pole or navigate directly to specific destinations. A worthwhile journey into a future field of conflict and a standard reference work on political, economic and security-related topics in the Arctic region.