“We French people must be the champions of ultra-low-energy aircraft! Traveling to a Safran aircraft engine factory on Friday, Emmanuel Macron had no shortage of ambitions three days before the Paris Air Show which opens its doors on Monday. In the wake of the French manufacturer Airbus, which on Wednesday mentioned a doubling of the world air fleet within 20 years, the French president drew up the sketch of aviation in 2050.
In the quest for the green plane, the French State will thus invest “300 million euros per year” to develop a more economical engine and lighter planes, and 200 million to create innovative biofuels. What to make the means of transport the most polluting today “zero carbon”? “It’s a fallacious argument,” says Charlène Fleury, coordinator of the Rester sur Terre network, “in the production chain there will inevitably be” carbon emissions.
Undeveloped fuels and a “maintenance of unbearable current traffic”
Let us forget for a moment the extraction of raw materials to build planes, the pollution linked to their production and the net artificialization of the soil which goes hand in hand with the development of airports, called upon to multiply to absorb the increase in the number of aircraft anticipated by Airbus. There are three options for flying “green”: biofuels (produced from biomass), e-fuel or hydrogen. In any case, “the energy efficiency is very bad”, underlines François Kirstettern, a senior civil servant writing for the think tank Terra Nova.
“When we create green gas, there is a return to the soil of nitrogen, it can be a lever towards sustainable agriculture to replace fertilizers. But with the fuel it does not work, ”he develops. As for the electricity needed to produce hydrogen, “if we have to make 25 EPRs by 2050, no one believes it”. “The energy withdrawal is of such importance that even maintaining the current traffic is unbearable” with these technologies, he calculates. Small victory in the calculation of the air sector, “the objective of 42.5% of renewable energies” in Europe in 2030, according to an agreement signed on Saturday that France “welcomed”, the text recording “the recognition of nuclear power” as carbon-free energy.
The green hydrogen plane, “a mirage”
The overall impact of biomass fuel “is not proven” and there are “a lot of frauds”, adds Charlène Fleury, while e-fuel “is not developed and is very expensive”. As for hydrogen, it is a “mirage solution” for this trained engineer, who points to a first plane “at the earliest in 2035” which will be able “only to make short hauls”. Or journeys for which the train already allows “a reliable and more efficient connection”. Moreover, “if we want green hydrogen, we need green electricity which we already need elsewhere, scaling up is impossible”, she stings. Similarly, looking at the sector’s decarbonization roadmap, “given the area of forests that should be planted, it is not possible” to compensate for fossil fuel, notes François Kirstettern.
The Rester sur Terre network coordinator calls for us not to forget the objective of a 55% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035, a key step towards carbon neutrality sold in 2050. It is difficult to imagine a 300-seat plane flying to hydrogen before this date, which already places the “green plane” largely outside the nails of decarbonization. In addition, if the aviation sector resumes its growth rate of 2019, “it will take up all of France’s carbon budget in 2050”. In other words, it will be necessary to choose between flying and “feeding, housing, clothing” so as not to blow up the bill and burst the ceiling of 2°C of global warming, beyond which “the situation becomes uncontrollable”.
“Restore social justice and reduce traffic” now
The number of planes in the world should double over the next 20 years as a result of the growth in global air traffic, according to Airbus. However, “Organizing the energy transition requires difficult social compromises”, argues François Kerstettern, and “if we assume from the outset that the aviation sector will double in size and absorb all the energy available”, the sacrifices of a whole part of the population “so that a few privileged people go on vacation will not pass”, he believes. “We must now restore social justice and reduce traffic,” advocates Charlène Fleury, noting that “1% of the population is responsible for 50% of emissions from the aviation sector, while 80% of the world’s population has no never flown”.
This does not necessarily mean that the human must be nailed to the ground definitively. “There will still be planes in 2050”, assures François Kerstettern, but “within public administrations, everyone is aware that an increase in air traffic prevents any serious closure of energy scenarios”, he concludes. Beyond the effectiveness of the technologies developed, “under the pretty label of the green plane”, Emmanuel Macron’s announcements thus appear as a “decoy to prevent thinking of more political levers to decarbonize aviation” , denounces Charlène Fleury. Sunday, Voltaero start-up unveiled its Cassio 330 plane, a hybrid device that could be mass-produced from 2025 with… five seats.