The president of the region Paca Renaud Muselier – Daniel Cole / AP / SIPA
- Prime Minister Jean Castex created a surprise this Sunday by announcing himself the withdrawal from the LREM list to regional in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, for the benefit of President LR Renaud Muselier.
- The LR party, which is due to meet this Tuesday in a strategic committee, has already withdrawn all nomination from Renaud Muselier.
- The outgoing president of the region can, however, count on strong local support.
The announcement had the effect of a political bombshell. Already in form since it is the Prime Minister himself who, in the Sunday newspaper, announced the withdrawal of candidate LREM in regional elections in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur for the benefit of LR Renaud Muselier. Then by chain reactions, starting with that of the boss of the Republicans, Christian Jacob, who did not wait to tell Renaud Muselier that he “will not be able to benefit from the LR nomination”. The regional alliance raises many questions, and heralds a very eventful political week.
Why an alliance from the first round?
It is a fact, the alliance between Renaud Muselier and the macronists goes against the line of the LR party, namely not agreeing with LREM in the first round. “The first round must be that of clarity and fidelity to its convictions, its commitments and its natural allies”, hammered Christian Jacob, the president of LR, in his press release published this Sunday. There remains the specificity of the local context.
Renaud Muselier, outgoing president of the Paca region, indeed wants to cast a wide net to beat the RN candidate Thierry Mariani, former member of the Republicans. This without waiting between the two turns. A recent study by Ifop for The gallery and Europe 1 validates this strategy by suggesting that an LR-LREM alliance from the first round would make it possible to get ahead of the RN in the first round, while several polls place the far right in the lead from this election.
What are the consequences of the withdrawal of the LR nomination to Renaud Muselier?
Renaud Muselier was clear before the national investiture commission of the Republicans on April 7: “I wish the support of my political family,” he said, according to the comments reported by the Chained Duck. I have it regionally, I hope nationally, but I am not asking you for any nomination. “And it is hard to imagine the party excluding in fine a Renaud Muselier who would keep the region on the right. With or without investiture, Renaud Muselier is therefore rolling out his campaign for the moment.
Favorable to an alliance with LREM, the mayor of Toulon Hubert Falco reaffirmed this Sunday “his full support” to Renaud Muselier. Unsurprisingly, the representatives of the right wing in the region, on the contrary, denounced it. On Twitter, Eric Ciotti, deputy for the Alpes-Maritimes, “thanks” Christian Jacob for withdrawing the nomination from Renaud Muselier, after having denounced “a stab in the back” from the Elysee. “It will be without me”, for his part reacted Julien Aubert, LR deputy of Vaucluse.
In his interview with Sunday newspaper, Jean Castex announced that “representatives of the parliamentary majority will integrate the device led” by Renaud Muselier. Sophie Cluzel, the former LREM regional candidate, for example indicated that she would be a candidate in the Var. The coming days will undoubtedly be decisive in defining the contours of the local alliance of the right and LREM, and its political consequences. As a reminder, the lists must be submitted to the prefecture between May 10 and 17.
Does this open a breach at the national level?
Clearly, this alliance goes beyond the simple local issue. The Republicans were indeed powerless, in the Paca region, to prevent an alliance of one of theirs with the Macronists. A hell of a blow from Trafalgar in the run-up to the 2022 presidential election. Political reactions have thus largely gone beyond the local framework. “Muzzle made a mistake. With En Marche he will not win, ”said Hauts-de-France president Xavier Bertrand, a declared presidential candidate, on BFMTV, criticizing an“ irresponsible ”agreement which“ will bring us to dishonor and defeat ”.
“To embody an alternative to the presidential election, the right must defend its own ideas. If in the regions we create confusion, collusion, that mortgages part of our chances in the presidential election, ”also estimated Damien Abad, president of the LR group in the Assembly. Suffice to say that the strategic council on the regional, scheduled for this Tuesday morning at LR, will be lively.