The Yemeni Houthis have been attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea for weeks. After warning the rebels, the US and allies are now carrying out military strikes against their positions.
In response to attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea, the USA and Great Britain attacked their positions on Friday night with the support of allies. The most important questions at a glance:
Why did the attacks happen?
In recent months, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have turned the Red Sea into a sideshow in the war between the Islamist Hamas and Israel. The Houthis want to persuade Israel to stop the attacks in the Gaza war and have declared any ship that heads to or comes from Israeli ports without aid for the Palestinians in Gaza as a possible target. According to US figures, the Houthis have carried out more than two dozen attacks on merchant ships since mid-November.
Because of the impact on shipping and global trade, the US put together maritime Operation Prosperity Guardian in December, which protects merchant ships, intercepts drones or missiles and also sinks attacking Houthi boats.
Earlier this month, the US and its allies called for an immediate end to the attacks and warned that “bad actors” would be held accountable if they continued to threaten lives, the global economy and the free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways.
The UN Security Council condemned the attacks on Wednesday (local time) and called for them to end. In this respect, the US-led attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen did not come out of the blue.
Who are the Houthi rebels?
The Houthi rebels are a militant movement in Yemen, located in the south of the Arabian Peninsula. In recent decades they have repeatedly incited uprisings against the leadership in the capital Sanaa. They took control there in 2014 and now control large parts of the country, especially in the north. According to a 2019 analysis, there are around 180,000 to 200,000 armed fighters. They have an extensive arsenal of weapons and are primarily supported by Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Shiite Houthis – a majority of Shiites also live in Iran – are fighting in the civil war in Yemen against a military alliance led by Saudi Arabia.
What do the Houthis want?
Above all, the rebels want to rule the entire Yemen and be recognized for it. In the Gaza war, the Houthis – just like their supporter Iran – want to deter Israel from further attacks, but at the same time, with their attacks in the Red Sea, they also want to gain broader recognition as part of the self-proclaimed Iranian “Axis of Resistance” against Israel. They can also distract from your own problems and demonstrate strength.
What role does Iran play?
Shiite-majority Iran is considered an important supporter of the Houthi rebels. Tehran has expanded its ties in the region since the 1990s to create an “axis of resistance” against declared arch-enemy Israel by supporting Shiite militias, but denies supporting the Houthis financially or with weapons. The US government has already described Iran as the mastermind behind the attacks on ships in the Red Sea, and there have also been allegations of involvement from Great Britain and Israel.
Iran has repeatedly denied involvement. Observers in the region see a low probability that Iran would actively support the Houthi rebels in the event of further escalation. “Iran’s strategy is to act in the region through its partners, including the Houthis,” says Mareike Transfeld from the Yemen Policy Center. Direct intervention is not in Iran’s interest.
The Houthis have a self-interest – to become regionally relevant, says Transfeld. They succeeded in doing this with the attacks. “They’re not just doing this at the direction of Iran, even if it’s in Iran’s interest.” For this reason, even if the situation escalates further, Transfeld assumes that Iran will continue to support the Houthis – through the supply of weapons parts, support in the development of weapons and possibly also financial and political support.
Is Germany involved?
Together with the states now involved in the military strikes, Germany has strongly condemned the Houthi attacks on merchant ships. Direct military involvement in the military strikes is not on the agenda. Germany is also not taking part in the “Prosperity Guardian” operation initiated by the USA. It is pointed out that Bundeswehr operations – if they do not serve national defense – must be integrated into collective security structures. The EU can offer such a framework. Germany is campaigning for an EU naval operation and is offering forces for this.
What could the German Navy contribute?
A spokesman did not provide any further details in response to questions on Friday. However, he referred to the German Navy’s capabilities with “sea-going units, including in the area of air defense” and explanations in December. At that time, the ministry had relegated the frigates to the Class 124. The ships are built precisely for such tasks. There is a focus on air defense, also to protect an association. In addition, logistics, leadership structures and education are also necessary for such an operation. There are currently no German Navy ships in the Red Sea.
What are the economic consequences of the conflict?
The Houthi attacks are leaving a clear mark on shipping traffic. According to estimates by the economic research institute IfW, 70 percent fewer containers are transported through the Red Sea than expected. Many ships take the detour via the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, which means thousands of kilometers of detour and weeks of delays. The electric car manufacturer Tesla has to largely stop production near Berlin for around two weeks. The price of North Sea Brent crude oil rose by more than two percent on Friday morning.
Will there now be a wildfire?
Observers in the region expect the Houthis to respond to the attacks. Whether there is a conflagration depends on how this actually happens, says Riad Kahwaji, director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA): If they now also attack US bases in the region, the number will increase The likelihood of the war expanding is significant. However, Kahwaji points out that the US-led strikes on Houthi targets were carried out from the sea and none came from neighboring countries – so as not to give the Houthis an excuse to attack these states.
For Transfeld from the Yemen Policy Center, it is conceivable that the Houthis will attack US military bases in Saudi Arabia. We know that the Houthis’ weapons have such a range, “and they could be trusted,” says the expert. That would be a “new level of escalation” and would also lead to the Americans playing an active role in the Yemen conflict. Transfeld does not yet see that the entire region will be in conflict with one another as a result.
The immediate consequences of a further escalation could primarily affect Yemen itself and lead to the breakdown of peace talks in the civil war country. “The likelihood that there will be active fighting again in Yemen is very high,” says Transfeld. Saudi Arabia, which actually wanted to withdraw from the conflict, could also be forced to become active again.